NBA games

ORL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
115–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL32223130115
DEN25433127126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home DEN
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 39 26 16 10
Wendell Carter Jr. S 29 26 8 0
Anthony Black S 37 22 2 3
Jett Howard 29 12 6 2
Jase Richardson 19 9 1 2
Goga Bitadze 19 6 4 1
Desmond Bane S 36 6 2 8
Tyus Jones S 19 5 0 4
Noah Penda 12 3 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 36 32 2 3
Nikola Jokic S 38 23 11 13
Cameron Johnson S 36 19 11 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 27 12 4 0
Bruce Brown S 34 11 2 2
Jonas Valanciunas 13 10 5 0
Jalen Pickett 24 9 3 7
Spencer Jones S 19 8 1 1
Julian Strawther 6 2 0 0
Zeke Nnaji 8 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
16%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
15%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
14%
4 Anthony Black ORL
12%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
6 Cameron Johnson DEN
11%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
8 Spencer Jones DEN
10%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN
0%
10 Tyus Jones ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
74%
Jumper
8%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.3 11.0 10.0
2 Jamal Murray DEN 28.3 4.1 7.4
3 Desmond Bane ORL 23.2 4.4 5.0
4 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.1 6.9 4.0
5 Anthony Black ORL 17.2 5.6 4.9
6 Cameron Johnson DEN 16.4 4.2 2.6
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 13.3 2.7 1.8
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.7 6.7 1.9
9 Spencer Jones DEN 9.5 3.8 1.2
10 Bruce Brown DEN 8.2 3.7 2.7
11 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.1 4.5 1.5
12 Jett Howard ORL 6.5 1.3 0.7
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.9 3.0 1.3
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.0 5.4 1.1
15 Julian Strawther DEN 4.6 1.7 0.8
16 Tyus Jones ORL 4.3 0.9 2.5
17 Jase Richardson ORL 4.1 1.2 0.9
18 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.4 2.3 0.6
19 Noah Penda ORL 3.2 2.6 0.9
20 Jonathan Isaac ORL 2.8 3.1 0.3
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.8 1.3 1.1
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.7 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.