NBA games

DET @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
114–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DET302722314114
DAL353125196116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home DAL
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 45 29 10 9
Jalen Duren S 34 17 13 1
Isaiah Stewart 31 14 8 1
Ronald Holland II 20 12 7 0
Daniss Jenkins 20 11 4 1
Jaden Ivey 14 8 0 1
Ausar Thompson S 9 8 2 2
Caris LeVert 27 6 3 3
Paul Reed 6 4 1 0
Javonte Green 18 3 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 40 23 10 4
Naji Marshall S 33 16 3 1
Anthony Davis S 37 15 14 2
Brandon Williams 31 14 5 2
P.J. Washington S 37 13 7 3
Max Christie 19 11 2 0
Daniel Gafford 16 9 6 1
Ryan Nembhard S 22 6 2 7
Klay Thompson 19 5 1 2
D'Angelo Russell 11 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Naji Marshall · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Naji Marshall makes 6-foot two point shot (P.J. Washington assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
12%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
11%
3 Jalen Duren DET
11%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
5 Tobias Harris DET
9%
6 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
8 Naji Marshall DAL
8%
9 Daniel Gafford DAL
7%
10 Ryan Nembhard DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
24%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 28.1 6.9 8.6
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 23.3 6.5 4.4
3 Anthony Davis DAL 21.6 10.5 3.7
4 P.J. Washington DAL 18.6 7.8 2.3
5 Jalen Duren DET 16.0 10.5 1.9
6 Naji Marshall DAL 15.0 4.5 2.7
7 Tobias Harris DET 14.6 4.5 2.2
8 Ausar Thompson DET 11.7 6.2 2.9
9 Ryan Nembhard DAL 11.3 2.5 5.7
10 Duncan Robinson DET 11.2 3.2 2.0
11 Brandon Williams DAL 10.7 2.5 4.6
12 Klay Thompson DAL 10.5 2.8 1.1
13 Max Christie DAL 10.2 3.1 1.5
14 D'Angelo Russell DAL 10.1 2.3 3.4
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.2 5.8 1.2
16 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.1 6.7 1.5
17 Caris LeVert DET 8.8 2.1 2.5
18 Paul Reed DET 7.2 5.2 1.4
19 Ronald Holland II DET 7.2 2.7 1.3
20 Jaden Ivey DET 7.0 2.6 1.5
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.6 1.4 0.8
22 Daniss Jenkins DET 4.3 1.5 1.8
23 Javonte Green DET 4.2 1.5 0.7
24 Dwight Powell DAL 4.0 2.8 1.0
25 Marcus Sasser DET 3.8 0.7 1.4
26 Moussa Cisse DAL 2.8 3.1 0.5
27 Caleb Martin DAL 1.3 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.