NBA games

HOU @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
128–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
HOU333432209128
NO2421383614133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home NO
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 43 32 7 2
Alperen Sengun S 36 28 11 8
Amen Thompson S 41 23 6 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 44 12 12 2
Reed Sheppard 27 11 4 7
Josh Okogie S 30 10 4 3
Steven Adams 28 6 10 3
Aaron Holiday 10 3 1 1
Clint Capela 7 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Saddiq Bey S 34 29 9 1
Trey Murphy III S 38 27 3 2
Herbert Jones S 38 18 3 3
Derik Queen S 35 16 12 3
Jordan Poole 25 15 1 2
Zion Williamson 21 9 3 5
Jeremiah Fears S 20 9 3 4
Jose Alvarado 30 7 3 6
Karlo Matkovic 11 3 2 1
Yves Missi 6 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trey Murphy III · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Trey Murphy III makes 15-foot jumper (Derik Queen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Trey Murphy III NO
11%
4 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
5 Jeremiah Fears NO
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
7 Kevin Durant HOU
9%
8 Derik Queen NO
9%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Josh Okogie HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
36%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 26.1 9.1 7.1
2 Kevin Durant HOU 25.2 4.9 5.6
3 Trey Murphy III NO 23.5 6.3 4.3
4 Zion Williamson NO 22.1 5.8 4.1
5 Amen Thompson HOU 20.6 8.7 5.7
6 Jordan Poole NO 18.1 2.3 3.6
7 Saddiq Bey NO 17.9 7.1 2.6
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.6 6.8 2.9
9 Jeremiah Fears NO 17.1 4.0 3.8
10 Reed Sheppard HOU 14.0 4.1 3.6
11 Derik Queen NO 13.9 6.3 5.0
12 Tari Eason HOU 11.7 4.6 2.2
13 Jose Alvarado NO 11.6 3.4 4.1
14 Bryce McGowens NO 11.2 3.1 1.9
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 10.1 2.0 1.7
16 Herbert Jones NO 9.5 3.4 2.0
17 Josh Okogie HOU 6.9 3.7 1.2
18 Steven Adams HOU 6.6 7.8 1.3
19 Yves Missi NO 5.1 5.8 0.8
20 Micah Peavy NO 5.1 2.2 1.1
21 Karlo Matkovic NO 4.5 2.6 0.8
22 Clint Capela HOU 4.3 4.9 0.7
23 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.3 1.2 0.8
24 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.1 1.3 0.6
25 Kevon Looney NO 2.5 2.6 0.8
26 JD Davison HOU 2.1 0.6 0.7
27 Jeff Green HOU 2.1 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.