NBA games

TOR @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
111–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR31262628111
MIL25282329105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MIL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 35 29 8 3
Scottie Barnes S 36 24 11 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 36 18 7 2
Ochai Agbaji S 20 10 2 1
Immanuel Quickley S 29 9 6 10
Jamal Shead 23 8 2 11
Gradey Dick 18 6 1 0
Collin Murray-Boyles 17 4 4 0
Ja'Kobe Walter 19 3 2 1
Jamison Battle 5 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bobby Portis 39 24 12 0
Kevin Porter Jr. S 40 22 4 13
Myles Turner S 31 21 6 2
Ryan Rollins 28 17 4 5
Gary Harris 21 7 3 1
Jericho Sims S 26 6 7 1
AJ Green S 24 5 2 1
Gary Trent Jr. S 30 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ochai Agbaji · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Ochai Agbaji makes driving layup (Brandon Ingram assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram TOR
14%
2 Ryan Rollins MIL
11%
3 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
11%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
7 Myles Turner MIL
9%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
8%
10 AJ Green MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
45%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 24.9 5.9 4.1
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.5 8.5 6.1
3 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 20.1 4.0 6.7
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.3 3.9 6.3
5 Ryan Rollins MIL 16.4 4.2 5.9
6 Bobby Portis MIL 12.0 5.3 1.8
7 Myles Turner MIL 11.5 4.0 1.3
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.6 8.0 2.8
9 AJ Green MIL 9.8 2.8 2.2
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.8 1.8 1.4
11 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.5 5.3 1.3
12 Jamal Shead TOR 7.6 2.4 4.7
13 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.4 2.8 1.3
14 Jericho Sims MIL 6.0 5.1 1.2
15 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 5.3 2.9 1.4
16 Gradey Dick TOR 4.6 1.7 0.7
17 Ochai Agbaji TOR 4.6 2.2 0.9
18 Cole Anthony MIL 4.0 1.8 1.7
19 Gary Harris MIL 3.5 1.7 1.4
20 Jamison Battle TOR 2.5 1.1 0.4
21 Pete Nance MIL 2.3 1.1 0.4
22 Mark Sears MIL 2.2 0.6 0.5
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.1 1.2 1.3
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.8 1.0 0.3
25 Amir Coffey MIL 1.6 0.5 0.3
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.3 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.