NBA games

MIA @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
106–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA30242329106
BKN2722242295

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home BKN
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 33 24 5 2
Kel'el Ware S 30 22 12 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 29 19 5 1
Davion Mitchell S 30 10 1 7
Andrew Wiggins S 33 10 4 2
Bam Adebayo S 31 8 17 1
Simone Fontecchio 22 7 4 2
Kasparas Jakucionis 8 3 0 1
Dru Smith 24 3 3 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 28 6 3
Nic Claxton S 35 16 12 8
Egor Demin S 28 14 2 1
Danny Wolf 20 9 5 2
Jalen Wilson 13 8 2 0
Noah Clowney S 26 8 6 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 13 4 6 2
Terance Mann S 31 4 3 2
Ziaire Williams 19 2 2 0
Tyrese Martin 19 2 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes running layup (Norman Powell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
10%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
4 Norman Powell MIA
9%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
6 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
9%
8 Egor Demin BKN
8%
9 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
22%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 26.2 7.1 4.2
2 Norman Powell MIA 22.5 4.2 3.2
3 Tyler Herro MIA 21.1 4.7 2.5
4 Cam Thomas BKN 20.7 2.7 3.5
5 Noah Clowney BKN 18.6 4.4 2.8
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.1 9.6 2.3
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.0 4.7 2.7
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.5 4.6 4.7
9 Nic Claxton BKN 13.0 8.1 4.3
10 Egor Demin BKN 11.1 3.5 3.8
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.4 2.8 7.6
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.4 9.3 1.0
13 Tyrese Martin BKN 9.0 3.4 2.1
14 Danny Wolf BKN 9.0 4.1 1.7
15 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.9 2.9 1.3
16 Terance Mann BKN 8.1 3.6 4.1
17 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.5 3.0 2.0
18 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.5 5.6 1.7
19 Drake Powell BKN 6.3 1.8 2.0
20 Dru Smith MIA 5.5 2.7 1.7
21 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.0 2.7 0.5
22 Jalen Wilson BKN 3.5 1.0 0.6
23 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 3.2 0.8 2.8
24 Myron Gardner MIA 2.9 2.0 0.5
25 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.8 1.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.