NBA games

NY @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
114–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY25342728114
IND36263021113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home IND
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 34 25 7 7
Mikal Bridges S 37 22 8 5
Jordan Clarkson 29 18 3 1
OG Anunoby S 34 16 6 1
Tyler Kolek 26 16 6 11
Mohamed Diawara S 19 5 3 1
Trey Jemison III 18 5 5 1
Ariel Hukporti S 27 4 5 3
Guerschon Yabusele 11 3 3 0
Pacome Dadiet 4 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 37 31 1 4
Pascal Siakam S 38 26 6 5
Bennedict Mathurin S 38 16 8 2
Quenton Jackson S 27 10 4 2
T.J. McConnell 18 8 5 5
Jay Huff S 18 6 10 1
Jarace Walker 16 6 3 1
Garrison Mathews 8 4 1 0
Isaiah Jackson 26 4 10 2
Tony Bradley 4 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mohamed Diawara · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Mohamed Diawara makes two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
19%
2 Andrew Nembhard IND
14%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
14%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
13%
5 OG Anunoby NY
13%
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
7 Ethan Thompson IND
8%
8 Jay Huff IND
8%
9 Mohamed Diawara NY
0%
10 Ariel Hukporti NY
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
41%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.8 3.4 6.5
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.3 6.4 3.2
3 Andrew Nembhard IND 18.9 3.1 6.5
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 17.6 4.4 2.8
5 Mikal Bridges NY 16.8 4.7 3.3
6 OG Anunoby NY 16.3 5.6 2.2
7 Jay Huff IND 9.4 4.6 1.6
8 Jarace Walker IND 8.8 4.0 1.3
9 Jordan Clarkson NY 8.6 2.6 1.5
10 Quenton Jackson IND 8.3 2.5 2.5
11 T.J. McConnell IND 8.2 3.0 4.2
12 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.8 5.9 0.7
13 Tyler Kolek NY 6.0 1.8 2.3
14 Ethan Thompson IND 5.3 1.5 1.1
15 Gabe McGlothan IND 5.2 3.2 1.4
16 Garrison Mathews IND 4.7 1.3 0.8
17 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 3.9 1.9 1.3
18 Johnny Furphy IND 3.4 1.7 0.5
19 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.0 1.7 0.4
20 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.7 2.5 0.5
21 Tosan Evbuomwan NY 2.4 0.7 0.4
22 Trey Jemison III NY 2.4 2.1 0.4
23 Tony Bradley IND 2.4 1.2 0.4
24 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.7 1.0 0.3
25 Mohamed Diawara NY 1.4 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.