NBA games

ATL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
126–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL32372631126
CHA37432726133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CHA
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 39 43 11 9
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 34 28 8 2
Dyson Daniels S 32 14 3 6
Onyeka Okongwu S 36 12 4 1
Trae Young S 20 8 1 10
Zaccharie Risacher S 20 5 3 1
Vit Krejci 23 5 3 0
Luke Kennard 14 4 1 1
Mouhamed Gueye 10 4 0 0
Asa Newell 10 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 29 28 4 13
Kon Knueppel S 35 28 5 7
Brandon Miller S 35 26 5 8
Miles Bridges S 32 16 3 2
Tidjane Salaun 16 10 4 1
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 27 8 4 2
Moussa Diabate 18 5 6 2
Sion James 20 5 2 1
KJ Simpson 13 4 0 2
Josh Green 11 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes 9-foot floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Miller CHA
12%
2 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
5 Trae Young ATL
9%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
8 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
9 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
7%
10 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
44%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 25.7 11.5 9.9
2 Miles Bridges CHA 22.9 5.9 4.4
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 22.4 4.5 3.7
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 21.7 4.6 5.1
5 Brandon Miller CHA 20.3 4.4 3.9
6 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.9 4.4 7.7
7 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 18.4 5.4 2.6
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 18.3 7.2 5.9
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 18.2 7.6 3.8
10 Trae Young ATL 17.7 3.0 8.4
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.0 3.0 1.5
12 Vit Krejci ATL 9.2 2.7 1.8
13 Sion James CHA 8.0 3.7 1.6
14 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 7.6 6.0 1.0
15 KJ Simpson CHA 6.4 1.9 2.7
16 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.8 6.3 1.0
17 Luke Kennard ATL 5.5 1.5 2.1
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.0 2.6 0.6
19 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.0 2.6 1.0
20 Asa Newell ATL 3.8 1.4 0.7
21 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.0 1.2 1.7
22 Mason Plumlee CHA 2.4 2.9 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.