NBA games

WSH @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
94–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2726221994
SA34233428119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home SA
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 24 18 4 3
Bub Carrington S 33 15 5 3
Marvin Bagley III 19 13 4 5
Kyshawn George S 36 11 6 7
CJ McCollum S 29 11 4 3
Tre Johnson 24 8 6 2
Tristan Vukcevic 5 6 2 0
Justin Champagnie 18 5 9 0
Bilal Coulibaly S 23 3 4 2
Jamir Watkins 8 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dylan Harper 23 24 5 3
Devin Vassell S 26 18 6 3
Stephon Castle S 25 17 2 7
Victor Wembanyama 17 15 8 4
Julian Champagnie 26 12 7 2
Luke Kornet S 23 10 5 2
Keldon Johnson 21 9 8 1
De'Aaron Fox S 25 6 3 3
Carter Bryant 9 5 4 0
Harrison Barnes S 18 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephon Castle · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Stephon Castle makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
11%
2 Bismack Biyombo SA
10%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
9%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
5 CJ McCollum WSH
8%
6 Luke Kornet SA
8%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
8 Devin Vassell SA
7%
9 Marvin Bagley III WSH
7%
10 Kyshawn George WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
32%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SA 25.1 4.1 7.2
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.1 11.9 5.0
3 CJ McCollum WSH 23.3 3.8 4.0
4 Alex Sarr WSH 21.7 8.2 3.2
5 Stephon Castle SA 21.4 6.3 9.0
6 Devin Vassell SA 17.7 4.3 3.0
7 Kyshawn George WSH 14.1 5.8 5.4
8 Harrison Barnes SA 13.6 3.9 2.7
9 Dylan Harper SA 13.6 3.4 3.6
10 Marvin Bagley III WSH 12.3 7.3 1.6
11 Julian Champagnie SA 12.0 6.1 1.8
12 Keldon Johnson SA 11.7 6.5 1.7
13 Bub Carrington WSH 11.3 3.1 4.7
14 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.7 3.7 1.7
15 Tre Johnson WSH 9.6 2.5 1.4
16 Luke Kornet SA 8.7 7.4 2.1
17 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.6 3.2 2.6
18 Cam Whitmore WSH 7.4 3.1 0.8
19 Justin Champagnie WSH 7.4 6.1 1.3
20 Will Riley WSH 5.2 1.8 1.0
21 Jeremy Sochan SA 4.8 2.9 1.0
22 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.3 1.9 0.9
23 Jamir Watkins WSH 4.0 2.8 0.5
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.0 0.9 1.0
25 Carter Bryant SA 2.7 1.6 0.5
26 Lindy Waters III SA 2.3 1.0 0.5
27 Anthony Gill WSH 2.0 0.8 0.3
28 Sharife Cooper WSH 1.8 0.4 0.4
29 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.7 1.0 0.4
30 AJ Johnson WSH 1.5 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.