NBA games

LAC @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
101–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC33222818101
OKC27373919122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home OKC
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 32 22 8 6
John Collins S 28 20 4 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 24 14 2 1
Kris Dunn S 31 14 5 4
Ivica Zubac S 32 11 11 3
Brook Lopez 15 6 5 2
Nicolas Batum 20 6 2 0
Kobe Sanders 30 5 4 4
Jordan Miller 20 3 6 3
Kobe Brown 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 32 7 6
Chet Holmgren S 31 22 7 2
Jalen Williams S 29 20 1 5
Ajay Mitchell 29 16 7 5
Isaiah Joe 22 14 4 2
Cason Wallace S 29 5 1 4
Aaron Wiggins 23 5 4 0
Branden Carlson 16 4 4 0
Alex Caruso 15 4 2 3
Luguentz Dort S 18 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
John Collins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"John Collins makes two point shot (Kris Dunn assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
18%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
15%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
14%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
6 Kris Dunn LAC
9%
7 John Collins LAC
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC
0%
10 Nicolas Batum LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
38%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.9 4.5 6.7
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.9 5.7 3.4
3 Jalen Williams OKC 20.0 5.9 6.2
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.1 7.6 2.0
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.9 11.1 3.1
6 John Collins LAC 12.3 4.3 1.4
7 Kris Dunn LAC 10.7 3.0 3.2
8 Ajay Mitchell OKC 10.6 2.8 3.3
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 10.2 3.3 3.1
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.1 2.6 1.8
11 Cason Wallace OKC 9.0 3.0 2.0
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.8 3.0 1.1
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.8 2.3 1.7
14 Jordan Miller LAC 7.2 2.7 1.0
15 Kobe Sanders LAC 5.9 2.2 1.3
16 Alex Caruso OKC 5.5 2.5 2.1
17 Kobe Brown LAC 5.2 2.3 1.1
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.0 2.3 0.9
19 Branden Carlson OKC 4.8 2.5 0.7
20 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.6 1.2 0.9
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.6 2.0 1.4
22 Brook Lopez LAC 3.3 1.1 0.5
23 Cam Christie LAC 3.3 2.1 0.6
24 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.2 1.1 0.5
25 RayJ Dennis LAC 2.0 0.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.