NBA games

MEM @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
116–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM29322728116
MIN27352127110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home MIN
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 28 12 3
Jock Landale 30 20 10 3
Jaylen Wells S 31 17 4 2
Cedric Coward S 27 13 5 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 23 12 1 3
Santi Aldama S 34 8 11 3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 15 7 2 1
Brandon Clarke S 17 6 3 1
Vince Williams Jr. 25 5 5 4
Jahmai Mashack 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 35 21 5 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 37 19 11 4
Rudy Gobert S 35 16 16 4
Naz Reid 30 16 7 2
Jaden McDaniels S 37 13 7 6
Bones Hyland S 34 12 3 5
Terrence Shannon Jr. 11 6 1 0
Rob Dillingham 11 5 1 2
Jaylen Clark 9 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Santi Aldama · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Santi Aldama makes 1-foot running dunk (Jaylen Wells assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
15%
2 Zach Edey MEM
11%
3 Jaylen Wells MEM
11%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
5 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
10%
6 Julius Randle MIN
10%
7 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
8 Cedric Coward MEM
8%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
10 Bones Hyland MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
42%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
14%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 22.4 6.8 6.1
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 17.4 4.9 3.1
3 Jaylen Wells MEM 16.8 4.1 2.1
4 Naz Reid MIN 15.9 6.2 3.3
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 14.8 4.9 3.3
6 Zach Edey MEM 13.8 10.7 1.3
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.2 4.3 3.9
8 Cedric Coward MEM 13.1 6.2 2.7
9 Santi Aldama MEM 12.9 5.6 3.3
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.5 10.5 1.9
11 Jock Landale MEM 9.9 5.1 1.4
12 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.2 3.9 5.1
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 8.1 2.3 3.2
14 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.6 1.1 0.8
15 Bones Hyland MIN 4.5 1.3 1.6
16 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.1 1.4 0.6
17 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 3.6 2.2 0.6
18 John Konchar MEM 3.1 2.3 1.0
19 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.1 1.2 1.5
20 Jahmai Mashack MEM 3.1 1.3 0.5
21 Johnny Juzang MIN 2.5 1.0 0.4
22 Leonard Miller MIN 2.4 1.0 0.5
23 Joe Ingles MIN 1.3 0.3 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.