NBA games

CLE @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
111–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE34243023111
CHI33293332127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home CHI
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 33 32 1 5
Jaylon Tyson S 32 21 2 3
Darius Garland S 30 15 5 6
Jarrett Allen S 28 14 6 3
De'Andre Hunter 28 12 5 1
Thomas Bryant 18 7 6 0
Craig Porter Jr. 18 4 2 4
Dean Wade S 22 2 2 1
Lonzo Ball 17 2 7 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 8 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 30 25 5 3
Josh Giddey S 34 23 11 11
Nikola Vucevic S 29 20 9 4
Isaac Okoro S 31 12 2 1
Tre Jones 24 11 1 11
Kevin Huerter 26 11 3 1
Zach Collins 16 10 4 2
Matas Buzelis S 22 9 1 1
Jalen Smith 16 4 7 1
Patrick Williams 11 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes layup (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Giddey CHI
12%
2 Coby White CHI
12%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
4 Darius Garland CLE
11%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
6 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
7 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
8 De'Andre Hunter CLE
9%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
10 Dean Wade CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
30%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 29.5 4.3 6.7
2 Coby White CHI 23.5 3.7 5.5
3 Josh Giddey CHI 22.2 8.4 7.8
4 Darius Garland CLE 19.1 3.5 6.8
5 Jaylon Tyson CLE 15.7 7.0 2.2
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.6 7.8 3.3
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 14.1 5.9 2.2
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.7 7.8 2.1
9 Tre Jones CHI 13.0 3.1 4.5
10 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.8 3.8 1.8
11 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.0 3.3 1.5
12 Kevin Huerter CHI 9.5 2.8 1.6
13 Zach Collins CHI 8.8 4.3 1.5
14 Jalen Smith CHI 8.1 5.4 1.2
15 Lonzo Ball CLE 7.2 5.0 4.0
16 Patrick Williams CHI 6.8 3.5 1.3
17 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 6.8 4.0 1.1
18 Dean Wade CLE 6.4 3.9 1.8
19 Dalen Terry CHI 5.0 2.5 1.7
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.0 3.4 1.7
21 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.0 1.5 1.4
22 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.5 2.8 0.7
23 Jevon Carter CHI 4.3 1.2 0.8
24 Julian Phillips CHI 3.9 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.