NBA games

SA @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
135–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA35422335135
NO25324530132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home NO
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 35 24 2 1
Dylan Harper 26 22 3 6
Stephon Castle S 23 18 5 5
Julian Champagnie 29 17 6 3
De'Aaron Fox S 30 14 4 7
Keldon Johnson 17 12 6 2
Kelly Olynyk 15 11 2 1
Luke Kornet S 26 6 8 1
Devin Vassell S 27 5 3 3
Carter Bryant 8 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derik Queen S 33 33 10 10
Trey Murphy III S 38 32 3 4
Saddiq Bey S 36 17 6 2
Herbert Jones S 26 17 6 4
Jose Alvarado 31 10 3 6
Bryce McGowens 24 8 1 2
Jeremiah Fears S 21 5 3 4
Micah Peavy 13 4 1 0
Karlo Matkovic 7 4 0 2
Yves Missi 8 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Herbert Jones · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Herbert Jones makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
11%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
3 Bismack Biyombo SA
9%
4 Derik Queen NO
9%
5 Jeremiah Fears NO
8%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
7 De'Aaron Fox SA
7%
8 Herbert Jones NO
7%
9 Saddiq Bey NO
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
40%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SA 26.9 4.2 7.3
2 Trey Murphy III NO 23.6 6.1 4.4
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.6 5.1 8.6
4 Devin Vassell SA 19.7 4.3 3.1
5 Jeremiah Fears NO 17.9 4.4 4.0
6 Saddiq Bey NO 16.8 7.0 2.7
7 Keldon Johnson SA 16.6 7.3 2.2
8 Derik Queen NO 16.4 6.8 5.4
9 Harrison Barnes SA 15.0 4.1 2.9
10 Dylan Harper SA 12.4 3.3 4.1
11 Julian Champagnie SA 12.3 5.5 1.8
12 Jose Alvarado NO 11.9 3.5 3.8
13 Herbert Jones NO 9.8 3.2 2.2
14 Bryce McGowens NO 9.7 3.0 1.9
15 Luke Kornet SA 7.4 6.2 1.9
16 Micah Peavy NO 7.0 2.8 1.5
17 Yves Missi NO 6.9 6.5 1.5
18 Jordan Hawkins NO 6.8 2.3 1.4
19 Jeremy Sochan SA 6.5 3.9 1.5
20 Karlo Matkovic NO 6.1 3.8 1.2
21 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.4 2.2 1.5
22 Trey Alexander NO 3.6 1.2 0.8
23 Kevon Looney NO 3.1 3.3 0.9
24 Carter Bryant SA 3.0 2.1 0.7
25 Lindy Waters III SA 2.8 1.3 0.7
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.2 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.