NBA games

PHX @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
108–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX29322324108
MIN23342721105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MIN
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mark Williams S 29 22 7 3
Collin Gillespie S 33 19 6 4
Dillon Brooks S 31 18 2 2
Grayson Allen S 33 12 3 4
Royce O'Neale S 33 11 8 5
Oso Ighodaro 19 10 5 2
Jordan Goodwin 26 9 3 1
Jamaree Bouyea 12 5 1 1
Ryan Dunn 24 2 8 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 40 9 2
Julius Randle S 37 21 3 8
Rudy Gobert S 21 15 8 1
Bones Hyland 16 14 1 3
Naz Reid 30 6 9 0
Jaden McDaniels S 40 4 6 3
Jaylen Clark 12 3 2 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 27 2 4 4
Mike Conley 15 0 2 4
Terrence Shannon Jr. 4 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grayson Allen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Grayson Allen makes 1-foot two point shot (Collin Gillespie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
14%
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN
12%
3 Julius Randle MIN
12%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
6 Mark Williams PHX
10%
7 Royce O'Neale PHX
9%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
9 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
39%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.7 5.2 4.5
2 Dillon Brooks PHX 22.9 3.9 2.5
3 Julius Randle MIN 21.8 6.7 5.5
4 Collin Gillespie PHX 18.4 3.8 4.9
5 Grayson Allen PHX 17.7 3.3 3.6
6 Naz Reid MIN 16.5 5.9 2.9
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 14.7 4.9 3.0
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.8 4.0 3.5
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.4 10.2 2.5
10 Mark Williams PHX 12.2 7.8 1.5
11 Jordan Goodwin PHX 11.3 4.7 2.2
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.2 4.3 2.3
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.7 3.8 1.7
14 Mike Conley MIN 5.8 1.8 2.3
15 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.2 3.4 1.7
16 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 5.2 1.4 1.2
17 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.1 2.4 0.6
18 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.9 1.4 0.7
19 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.6 1.5 1.6
20 Nick Richards PHX 3.3 2.8 0.5
21 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.7 1.6 0.4
22 Bones Hyland MIN 2.7 1.0 0.9
23 Leonard Miller MIN 2.6 1.1 0.6
24 Johnny Juzang MIN 2.6 1.1 0.4
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.3 1.2 0.4
26 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.3 1.4 0.4
27 Joan Beringer MIN 2.1 1.3 0.3
28 Joe Ingles MIN 1.3 0.4 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.