NBA games

SAC @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
105–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC23283717105
IND35312624116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home IND
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook S 40 24 12 14
DeMar DeRozan S 36 20 5 3
Zach LaVine S 38 16 2 3
Maxime Raynaud S 23 13 8 3
Precious Achiuwa 21 11 5 2
Keegan Murray S 37 8 11 2
Nique Clifford 14 7 2 0
Drew Eubanks 6 3 1 0
Keon Ellis 15 3 1 0
Malik Monk 9 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 33 28 4 12
Bennedict Mathurin S 35 25 6 2
Pascal Siakam S 35 23 5 4
Jarace Walker 18 12 3 1
Jay Huff S 31 8 7 2
Garrison Mathews 17 7 1 1
Ethan Thompson S 28 6 5 0
T.J. McConnell 16 4 1 3
Johnny Furphy 10 3 2 0
Isaiah Jackson 17 0 7 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jay Huff · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Jay Huff makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
2 Zach LaVine SAC
12%
3 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
4 Keegan Murray SAC
11%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
7 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
8 Maxime Raynaud SAC
9%
9 Garrison Mathews IND
7%
10 Jay Huff IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
20%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.6 7.4 3.7
2 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.4 3.3 6.5
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND 20.3 5.5 3.3
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.3 3.6 3.6
5 Zach LaVine SAC 18.5 3.4 2.8
6 Russell Westbrook SAC 14.6 7.0 7.2
7 Keegan Murray SAC 14.5 6.8 1.7
8 Malik Monk SAC 13.4 3.2 2.6
9 Jay Huff IND 10.2 4.7 1.9
10 Jarace Walker IND 9.9 4.3 1.5
11 T.J. McConnell IND 9.5 3.6 5.1
12 Maxime Raynaud SAC 9.3 4.7 1.1
13 Precious Achiuwa SAC 8.6 5.9 1.2
14 Isaiah Jackson IND 8.2 5.5 1.1
15 Ethan Thompson IND 6.2 1.9 1.8
16 Garrison Mathews IND 5.5 1.5 1.0
17 Drew Eubanks SAC 5.4 3.5 0.7
18 Dario Saric SAC 5.3 2.1 0.6
19 Johnny Furphy IND 5.1 2.1 0.9
20 Keon Ellis SAC 4.5 1.9 0.6
21 Nique Clifford SAC 4.5 2.4 0.8
22 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 4.5 3.4 0.6
23 Tony Bradley IND 4.5 2.0 0.7
24 Taelon Peter IND 3.1 1.8 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.