NBA games

OKC @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
131–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC45293225131
UTAH20282330101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home UTAH
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chet Holmgren S 23 25 9 1
Jalen Williams S 25 25 3 8
Aaron Wiggins 20 19 3 1
Ousmane Dieng 26 14 2 3
Branden Carlson 24 13 6 0
Kenrich Williams 24 11 7 6
Ajay Mitchell S 29 7 2 4
Cason Wallace S 25 6 2 4
Jaylin Williams S 24 5 6 4
Brooks Barnhizer 12 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Filipowski S 36 21 10 2
Walter Clayton Jr. 29 20 2 9
Taylor Hendricks 25 20 5 1
Ace Bailey S 32 13 1 4
Keyonte George S 28 8 6 3
Jusuf Nurkic S 20 7 8 2
Svi Mykhailiuk S 33 6 1 1
Cody Williams 8 4 2 0
Brice Sensabaugh 6 2 0 0
Isaiah Collier 6 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
18%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
15%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
14%
4 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
12%
5 Ace Bailey UTAH
11%
6 Cason Wallace OKC
11%
7 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
10%
8 Jaylin Williams OKC
9%
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC
0%
10 Ajay Mitchell OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
37%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 25.0 4.1 6.7
2 Jalen Williams OKC 19.1 6.6 6.1
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.9 8.2 2.3
4 Aaron Wiggins OKC 13.1 3.8 2.8
5 Ajay Mitchell OKC 12.5 3.4 3.7
6 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 11.0 7.1 2.4
7 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 10.9 8.9 4.6
8 Ace Bailey UTAH 10.9 3.3 1.7
9 Cason Wallace OKC 10.5 3.3 2.3
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.6 2.7 1.8
11 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.4 2.7 2.1
12 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.2 2.8 1.5
13 Isaiah Collier UTAH 7.7 2.1 4.5
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.4 4.7 2.3
15 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 6.3 2.2 3.1
16 Kyle Anderson UTAH 6.2 2.7 3.0
17 Kevin Love UTAH 6.0 3.8 1.1
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.8 2.2 1.3
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.3 2.4 1.1
20 Branden Carlson OKC 4.7 2.7 1.0
21 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 3.5 2.9 0.6
22 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 3.2 2.6 0.7
23 Chris Youngblood OKC 3.1 1.6 0.7
24 Cody Williams UTAH 3.0 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.