NBA games

LAL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
112–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL30233425112
PHI30302424108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home PHI
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 39 31 15 11
LeBron James S 34 29 7 6
Rui Hachimura S 36 17 6 1
Deandre Ayton S 31 14 12 2
Austin Reaves S 39 11 4 4
Jake LaRavia 17 4 2 0
Gabe Vincent 19 3 1 0
Jaxson Hayes 17 3 5 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 3 0 0 1
Adou Thiero 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 39 28 7 9
Joel Embiid S 30 16 7 2
VJ Edgecombe S 38 15 5 3
Paul George S 32 12 6 3
Andre Drummond 18 11 12 0
Jared McCain 13 8 1 1
Dominick Barlow S 24 7 4 0
Quentin Grimes 29 7 8 3
Jabari Walker 17 4 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 17-foot step back jumpshot (Deandre Ayton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
15%
2 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
4 LeBron James LAL
8%
5 Paul George PHI
8%
6 Joel Embiid PHI
8%
7 Austin Reaves LAL
7%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
9 VJ Edgecombe PHI
6%
10 Dominick Barlow PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
34%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.0 8.3 9.2
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 29.9 4.2 6.8
3 Austin Reaves LAL 28.6 5.8 6.5
4 Joel Embiid PHI 20.5 6.0 4.0
5 Quentin Grimes PHI 18.4 3.8 5.2
6 LeBron James LAL 16.4 4.8 7.7
7 Paul George PHI 15.5 4.8 3.5
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 15.0 9.9 1.3
9 VJ Edgecombe PHI 13.7 5.5 3.9
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.1 3.8 0.9
11 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.5 5.5 2.0
12 Jared McCain PHI 9.3 2.6 2.0
13 Andre Drummond PHI 8.4 9.1 1.3
14 Jake LaRavia LAL 6.8 3.3 1.3
15 Justin Edwards PHI 6.8 2.5 2.0
16 Jabari Walker PHI 6.2 3.7 1.0
17 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.1 1.6 1.7
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.6 4.1 0.9
19 Dalton Knecht LAL 5.2 2.3 0.7
20 Adem Bona PHI 5.2 4.1 0.7
21 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.0 4.3 1.1
22 Eric Gordon PHI 3.5 0.8 0.6
23 Kyle Lowry PHI 3.5 1.2 1.3
24 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.4 2.1 0.7
25 Bronny James LAL 3.4 1.3 1.6
26 Johni Broome PHI 2.6 2.1 0.5
27 Adou Thiero LAL 2.4 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.