NBA games

GS @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
123–91
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS38222736123
CHI2521301591

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home CHI
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski 29 21 8 7
Jimmy Butler III S 29 19 8 6
Quinten Post S 26 19 4 1
De'Anthony Melton 17 13 1 1
Pat Spencer S 27 12 5 6
Moses Moody 19 11 4 1
Will Richard S 24 9 4 0
Buddy Hield S 22 9 7 1
Gui Santos 20 6 7 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 22 4 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 35 18 3 5
Matas Buzelis S 25 16 3 1
Jevon Carter 22 13 1 2
Coby White S 25 12 1 1
Nikola Vucevic S 24 9 6 3
Julian Phillips 12 5 2 1
Ayo Dosunmu S 27 4 4 5
Dalen Terry 18 4 3 3
Trentyn Flowers 4 4 1 0
Zach Collins 19 3 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Buddy Hield · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Giddey CHI
12%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
3 Coby White CHI
10%
4 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
9%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
6 Jimmy Butler III GS
8%
7 Pat Spencer GS
8%
8 Buddy Hield GS
8%
9 Jonathan Kuminga GS
7%
10 Julian Phillips CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
21%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 25.9 3.7 6.5
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.5 5.8 5.7
3 Josh Giddey CHI 21.8 10.4 8.4
4 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.8 3.5 3.4
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.7 9.1 3.4
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.4 4.5 3.0
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 13.4 6.5 2.4
8 Moses Moody GS 12.6 4.1 1.8
9 Jonathan Kuminga GS 10.7 5.8 2.6
10 Zach Collins CHI 10.2 4.9 1.8
11 Buddy Hield GS 9.8 3.7 2.1
12 Quinten Post GS 9.2 4.5 2.0
13 Pat Spencer GS 9.1 2.7 3.6
14 Will Richard GS 6.9 3.4 1.3
15 Gary Payton II GS 6.8 3.9 2.2
16 Patrick Williams CHI 6.7 3.1 1.2
17 Jevon Carter CHI 6.3 1.9 1.0
18 Julian Phillips CHI 5.4 2.5 0.8
19 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.2 4.4 1.0
20 Gui Santos GS 4.8 2.4 1.0
21 Dalen Terry CHI 4.5 2.5 1.5
22 Emanuel Miller CHI 3.4 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.