NBA games

POR @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
96–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2026321896
MEM40262627119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MEM
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 32 21 7 3
Deni Avdija S 31 17 7 7
Shaedon Sharpe 27 17 2 2
Toumani Camara S 33 13 6 1
Duop Reath 19 12 2 1
Sidy Cissoko S 24 6 4 0
Caleb Love 20 4 2 3
Yang Hansen S 19 4 5 2
Kris Murray 22 2 3 1
Rayan Rupert 11 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Santi Aldama 28 22 7 1
Jaylen Wells S 26 16 5 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 23 16 2 5
Jock Landale 21 15 8 2
Zach Edey S 22 12 10 3
Cam Spencer 32 12 3 6
Cedric Coward S 25 11 6 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 24 6 3 4
Vince Williams Jr. S 16 5 2 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 3 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cedric Coward · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Cedric Coward makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach Edey MEM
13%
2 Jaylen Wells MEM
11%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
4 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
9%
5 Robert Williams III POR
9%
6 Deni Avdija POR
9%
7 Cedric Coward MEM
9%
8 Jerami Grant POR
8%
9 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
10 Sidy Cissoko POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
23%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
21%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 25.9 7.5 7.9
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.9 4.7 3.6
3 Jerami Grant POR 21.5 4.6 3.4
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.0 4.9 3.0
5 Jaylen Wells MEM 15.3 3.3 2.1
6 Zach Edey MEM 15.0 11.2 1.5
7 Santi Aldama MEM 14.3 6.2 3.9
8 Cedric Coward MEM 14.2 6.3 2.7
9 Cam Spencer MEM 14.0 2.5 5.0
10 Toumani Camara POR 12.8 5.1 2.9
11 Donovan Clingan POR 12.0 10.2 2.1
12 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 11.3 4.8 8.0
13 Jock Landale MEM 10.1 4.8 1.4
14 Caleb Love POR 9.3 3.0 1.8
15 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.7 2.6 1.9
16 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 7.4 2.0 3.1
17 Kris Murray POR 7.1 4.5 1.5
18 Robert Williams III POR 6.6 6.7 0.9
19 Blake Wesley POR 6.2 2.4 2.9
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.9 1.2 0.8
21 John Konchar MEM 4.8 3.1 1.5
22 Duop Reath POR 3.5 1.3 0.6
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 3.4 2.0 0.6
24 Rayan Rupert POR 3.2 2.0 0.6
25 Yang Hansen POR 2.8 1.6 0.7
26 Javonte Cooke POR 2.1 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.