NBA games

DEN @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
115–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN34233028115
CHA34242325106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home CHA
79% 21%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 35 34 3 5
Nikola Jokic S 35 28 9 11
Tim Hardaway Jr. 27 14 1 2
Peyton Watson S 30 10 8 1
Spencer Jones S 25 8 2 1
Jonas Valanciunas 13 8 4 3
Cameron Johnson S 39 8 4 3
Jalen Pickett 16 5 4 3
Bruce Brown 20 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 37 24 9 8
Brandon Miller S 30 17 5 5
KJ Simpson S 29 16 5 1
Kon Knueppel S 33 14 4 4
Liam McNeeley 20 13 4 2
Sion James 26 7 2 1
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 25 6 6 0
Tidjane Salaun 16 5 6 1
Mason Plumlee 22 4 6 2
Antonio Reeves 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
15%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
15%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
12%
4 Peyton Watson DEN
12%
5 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
11%
6 Kon Knueppel CHA
10%
7 Cameron Johnson DEN
9%
8 Spencer Jones DEN
8%
9 Jamal Murray DEN
6%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
68%
Jumper
6%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.2 11.6 10.5
2 Jamal Murray DEN 26.5 4.3 7.4
3 Kon Knueppel CHA 21.0 4.7 4.3
4 Miles Bridges CHA 19.7 5.5 3.3
5 Brandon Miller CHA 17.3 3.0 4.0
6 Collin Sexton CHA 16.8 3.2 3.7
7 Cameron Johnson DEN 16.6 4.2 3.1
8 Peyton Watson DEN 16.1 6.4 2.4
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 11.8 2.6 1.6
10 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 9.1 6.7 1.0
11 Bruce Brown DEN 8.6 3.2 2.4
12 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.0 4.2 1.0
13 Sion James CHA 6.8 3.5 1.7
14 Spencer Jones DEN 6.7 3.3 1.1
15 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.5 3.4 1.0
16 KJ Simpson CHA 6.0 2.0 2.8
17 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.7 2.6 0.9
18 Antonio Reeves CHA 4.1 1.3 0.8
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.7 2.2 0.6
20 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.4 1.2 1.1
21 Curtis Jones DEN 3.1 1.0 0.9
22 Mason Plumlee CHA 2.8 2.4 1.0
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.0 1.5 0.7
24 Drew Peterson CHA 1.9 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.