NBA games

BOS @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
121–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS34432024121
TOR26333222113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home TOR
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 39 30 8 5
Derrick White S 37 27 4 5
Payton Pritchard S 38 15 4 6
Anfernee Simons 21 12 3 2
Neemias Queta S 34 11 11 4
Sam Hauser 26 9 3 0
Jordan Walsh S 26 9 6 0
Hugo Gonzalez 2 5 1 0
Josh Minott 11 3 0 2
Baylor Scheierman 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 35 30 4 3
Scottie Barnes S 37 18 11 8
Sandro Mamukelashvili 23 14 6 0
Immanuel Quickley S 31 11 1 5
Ochai Agbaji 22 11 3 0
A.J. Lawson 13 10 5 0
Jakob Poeltl S 25 10 4 0
Jamal Shead 22 9 4 3
Collin Murray-Boyles 6 0 2 1
Alijah Martin 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:20 Q1
"Derrick White makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Neemias Queta assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
6 Derrick White BOS
10%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
8 Payton Pritchard BOS
9%
9 Jordan Walsh BOS
9%
10 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
17%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 29.7 7.4 6.3
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.0 6.0 4.2
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.6 8.0 5.4
4 Derrick White BOS 20.5 4.7 5.3
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 20.4 4.4 4.6
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.9 3.9 6.4
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.3 8.7 2.8
8 Neemias Queta BOS 11.4 8.2 1.4
9 Anfernee Simons BOS 11.3 2.6 2.6
10 Jordan Walsh BOS 9.8 5.3 1.6
11 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 9.8 5.2 1.7
12 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.6 3.1 1.4
13 Sam Hauser BOS 6.8 3.1 1.6
14 Josh Minott BOS 6.6 3.5 1.2
15 Jamal Shead TOR 6.6 1.9 4.6
16 Luka Garza BOS 6.3 3.5 0.9
17 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 6.2 2.5 1.4
18 Gradey Dick TOR 5.9 1.9 1.0
19 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.9 2.0 1.2
20 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.4 1.5 0.6
21 Alijah Martin TOR 4.4 2.1 0.8
22 Chucky Hepburn TOR 4.3 0.8 1.7
23 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.9 2.1 0.7
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.5 1.7 0.7
25 Ochai Agbaji TOR 2.7 1.3 0.5
26 Chris Boucher BOS 2.5 2.3 0.3
27 Garrett Temple TOR 2.5 1.3 0.6
28 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.4 1.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.