NBA games

ORL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
100–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL31241827100
NY35192824106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home NY
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 32 17 3 4
Paolo Banchero S 24 16 1 2
Desmond Bane S 34 16 6 4
Anthony Black 30 14 11 4
Jase Richardson 6 8 1 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 33 8 7 3
Franz Wagner S 7 7 3 1
Tyus Jones 21 6 1 2
Jonathan Isaac 11 4 2 0
Goga Bitadze 12 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 38 30 2 9
OG Anunoby S 28 21 7 0
Josh Hart S 34 17 12 1
Mikal Bridges S 34 12 6 7
Guerschon Yabusele 11 8 2 0
Ariel Hukporti 23 6 7 2
Mitchell Robinson S 25 6 13 2
Miles McBride 21 4 1 2
Tyler Kolek 8 2 0 1
Mohamed Diawara 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 1-foot two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
18%
2 OG Anunoby NY
12%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
12%
4 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
6 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
7 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
8 Josh Hart NY
10%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
78%
Jumper
8%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.9 3.2 6.4
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.9 5.9 3.9
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.2 7.8 4.8
4 Desmond Bane ORL 22.0 4.4 4.9
5 Mikal Bridges NY 18.7 4.8 3.2
6 Josh Hart NY 17.9 8.6 6.1
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 17.5 4.3 5.1
8 Anthony Black ORL 17.3 4.6 4.2
9 OG Anunoby NY 16.0 4.7 2.6
10 Miles McBride NY 14.5 3.3 2.2
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.8 6.9 2.0
12 Jordan Clarkson NY 10.7 2.9 2.0
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.5 3.7 1.5
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.4 5.6 1.5
15 Jett Howard ORL 6.0 1.3 0.6
16 Tyler Kolek NY 5.2 1.6 2.1
17 Tyus Jones ORL 4.6 1.2 2.3
18 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.5 7.3 0.9
19 Jase Richardson ORL 3.8 1.4 1.0
20 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.8 2.3 0.7
21 Noah Penda ORL 3.6 3.1 0.9
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.3 3.5 0.4
23 Tosan Evbuomwan NY 2.8 1.2 0.6
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.6 2.5 0.5
25 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.5 1.3 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.