NBA games

HOU @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
109–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU26312032109
DAL29283728122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home DAL
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 31 27 1 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 41 22 8 3
Aaron Holiday 27 19 2 0
Reed Sheppard 20 12 2 3
Clint Capela S 30 8 8 1
Josh Okogie S 23 7 6 0
Amen Thompson S 33 7 6 6
Jae'Sean Tate 17 5 3 3
Jeff Green 6 2 0 1
Isaiah Crawford 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 30 29 8 2
Brandon Williams 23 20 1 5
Cooper Flagg S 36 19 5 3
Naji Marshall S 28 15 2 2
P.J. Washington S 36 14 7 1
Ryan Nembhard S 23 11 1 7
Max Christie 23 6 2 0
Dwight Powell 18 4 3 0
D'Angelo Russell 13 4 1 2
Jaden Hardy 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Clint Capela · Layup (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Clint Capela makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
15%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
12%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
6 Kevin Durant HOU
9%
7 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
8 Max Christie DAL
7%
9 Ryan Nembhard DAL
7%
10 Josh Okogie HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
22%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 26.3 5.1 5.7
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 21.9 6.2 3.9
3 Amen Thompson HOU 20.3 8.5 5.1
4 Anthony Davis DAL 19.1 9.8 3.4
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.3 6.4 2.2
6 P.J. Washington DAL 15.9 6.9 2.1
7 Reed Sheppard HOU 14.6 4.4 3.6
8 Naji Marshall DAL 14.2 5.1 2.8
9 D'Angelo Russell DAL 11.2 2.7 3.7
10 Max Christie DAL 11.0 2.8 1.4
11 Brandon Williams DAL 10.9 2.8 4.8
12 Aaron Holiday HOU 10.4 1.8 1.7
13 Ryan Nembhard DAL 8.7 2.0 4.1
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.2 1.3 0.8
15 Josh Okogie HOU 5.9 3.4 1.2
16 Isaiah Crawford HOU 4.7 2.2 0.7
17 Clint Capela HOU 4.1 5.0 0.6
18 Jeff Green HOU 4.1 1.6 0.7
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.1 1.9 0.8
20 JD Davison HOU 3.5 1.2 0.9
21 Moussa Cisse DAL 3.1 3.6 0.4
22 Dwight Powell DAL 2.6 1.9 0.9
23 Caleb Martin DAL 2.5 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.