NBA games

LAC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
106–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC34222228106
MIN22203037109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MIN
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 39 34 5 6
Kawhi Leonard S 31 20 3 2
Ivica Zubac S 38 15 13 2
John Collins S 30 12 2 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 23 9 1 2
Kris Dunn S 36 8 6 4
Nicolas Batum 17 3 4 0
Brook Lopez 10 3 0 0
Kobe Sanders 16 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden McDaniels S 37 27 1 2
Julius Randle S 33 24 3 6
Naz Reid 28 19 9 3
Anthony Edwards S 37 15 6 4
Jaylen Clark 16 8 3 0
Mike Conley 18 5 2 0
Donte DiVincenzo S 25 5 4 4
Rudy Gobert S 33 4 7 2
Terrence Shannon Jr. 5 2 0 0
Rob Dillingham 9 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 James Harden LAC
14%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
4 Julius Randle MIN
10%
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 John Collins LAC
7%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
53%
Jumper
6%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.3 5.2 5.1
2 James Harden LAC 28.2 4.7 7.4
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.6 5.8 3.4
4 Julius Randle MIN 22.6 7.1 6.1
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 17.0 11.4 3.3
6 Naz Reid MIN 16.9 5.8 3.2
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 14.1 5.1 3.3
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.8 4.0 3.6
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.9 10.4 2.6
10 John Collins LAC 12.4 5.7 1.2
11 Kris Dunn LAC 9.8 3.1 2.9
12 Kobe Sanders LAC 9.1 2.6 1.6
13 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 8.4 2.5 2.7
14 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.9 2.8 1.1
15 Mike Conley MIN 5.9 1.8 2.6
16 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 5.6 1.4 0.9
17 Kobe Brown LAC 5.1 2.3 1.1
18 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.7 2.3 0.7
19 Cam Christie LAC 4.0 2.4 0.6
20 Brook Lopez LAC 3.9 1.2 0.5
21 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.9 1.6 1.4
22 Leonard Miller MIN 3.0 1.2 0.6
23 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.0 1.2 0.5
24 Bones Hyland MIN 3.0 1.1 1.0
25 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 2.6 1.8 0.4
26 Joan Beringer MIN 2.5 1.4 0.3
27 RayJ Dennis LAC 2.3 1.0 0.7
28 Joe Ingles MIN 1.6 0.4 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.