NBA games

SAC @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
127–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC34382926127
MIA31242333111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MIA
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 39 42 5 1
Keegan Murray S 32 16 4 1
Nique Clifford 18 15 6 0
DeMar DeRozan S 40 13 6 6
Maxime Raynaud S 25 12 10 1
Russell Westbrook S 32 12 1 10
Precious Achiuwa 16 7 10 1
Drew Eubanks 11 4 2 0
Malik Monk 17 3 0 4
Keon Ellis 9 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 35 27 6 6
Simone Fontecchio 26 20 7 0
Norman Powell S 27 18 2 1
Andrew Wiggins S 26 13 4 4
Nikola Jovic 31 12 2 6
Bam Adebayo S 25 9 7 3
Kel'el Ware S 30 5 6 0
Dru Smith S 19 4 1 2
Keshad Johnson 14 3 5 0
Jahmir Young 8 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kel'el Ware · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Kel'el Ware makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
4 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
6 Norman Powell MIA
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 Russell Westbrook SAC
8%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
10 Drew Eubanks SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
24%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell MIA 24.5 4.1 3.5
2 Tyler Herro MIA 23.7 5.0 3.0
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.0 9.2 2.5
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 18.9 3.5 3.8
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 18.3 6.0 3.8
6 Zach LaVine SAC 17.4 3.5 3.1
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 15.5 5.3 5.5
8 Keegan Murray SAC 14.8 6.9 1.8
9 Russell Westbrook SAC 14.1 7.5 8.1
10 Kel'el Ware MIA 13.9 11.1 1.4
11 Malik Monk SAC 12.8 3.2 2.4
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.9 3.1 7.9
13 Pelle Larsson MIA 9.2 3.1 4.0
14 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.1 3.1 2.2
15 Maxime Raynaud SAC 8.0 3.5 1.0
16 Precious Achiuwa SAC 7.8 4.9 1.2
17 Dru Smith MIA 7.5 3.7 2.3
18 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.1 3.9 2.9
19 Dario Saric SAC 5.3 2.0 0.7
20 Drew Eubanks SAC 4.7 3.4 0.7
21 Keon Ellis SAC 4.7 1.5 0.8
22 Jahmir Young MIA 4.0 0.8 1.2
23 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.3 2.2 0.5
24 Nique Clifford SAC 3.2 1.6 0.9
25 Devin Carter SAC 2.0 1.1 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.