NBA games

MIL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
112–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL22342531112
DET29323033124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home DET
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Porter Jr. S 36 32 4 6
Kyle Kuzma S 29 15 4 1
Myles Turner S 25 12 1 0
Gary Trent Jr. 29 11 1 1
Ryan Rollins S 23 10 6 6
Bobby Portis 20 7 7 4
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 5 7 2 0
Amir Coffey 8 4 1 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 12 4 3 2
Pete Nance 5 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 32 23 6 12
Isaiah Stewart S 26 19 2 0
Jalen Duren S 33 16 16 1
Javonte Green 17 13 0 0
Ausar Thompson S 27 13 6 8
Caris LeVert 22 11 2 1
Jaden Ivey 16 10 5 2
Duncan Robinson S 24 7 2 1
Paul Reed 15 6 10 3
Ronald Holland II 18 4 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:52 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes 24-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
18%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
18%
3 Ryan Rollins MIL
13%
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
12%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
6 Myles Turner MIL
10%
7 Jericho Sims MIL
10%
8 Duncan Robinson DET
8%
9 Bobby Portis MIL
0%
10 Kyle Kuzma MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
68%
Jumper
10%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.3 8.1 9.1
2 Ryan Rollins MIL 21.5 4.4 6.6
3 Jalen Duren DET 19.4 11.0 2.9
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 17.7 3.4 5.3
5 Bobby Portis MIL 13.9 5.4 1.7
6 Duncan Robinson DET 13.5 3.7 2.5
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.0 4.4 3.0
8 Myles Turner MIL 12.7 5.4 1.8
9 Ausar Thompson DET 11.1 5.0 2.5
10 Caris LeVert DET 10.5 2.6 3.4
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.7 1.6 1.6
12 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.8 5.8 1.2
13 Paul Reed DET 8.3 5.7 1.4
14 Daniss Jenkins DET 8.3 2.3 3.7
15 Ronald Holland II DET 6.9 2.7 1.6
16 Jaden Ivey DET 6.8 2.2 1.2
17 Javonte Green DET 5.8 2.0 0.8
18 Jericho Sims MIL 5.4 5.1 1.1
19 Cole Anthony MIL 5.4 2.1 3.3
20 Gary Harris MIL 5.0 2.2 1.4
21 Pete Nance MIL 4.6 1.4 0.7
22 Chaz Lanier DET 3.3 1.1 0.7
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.8 1.6 0.5
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.8 1.3 1.2
25 Amir Coffey MIL 2.7 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.