NBA games

GS @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
99–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS1233272799
CLE1818263294

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home CLE
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pat Spencer S 29 19 4 7
Gui Santos 27 14 3 3
Buddy Hield S 26 13 7 3
Quinten Post S 32 12 9 3
Brandin Podziemski 21 10 3 2
Moses Moody 20 9 2 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 16 8 5 1
Gary Payton II 27 6 3 1
Will Richard S 21 4 3 0
Jonathan Kuminga S 22 4 7 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 37 29 4 3
Evan Mobley S 35 18 10 1
Darius Garland S 32 17 5 4
Jaylon Tyson S 34 11 11 3
De'Andre Hunter S 33 6 3 3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 16 6 12 1
Dean Wade 19 3 4 0
Luke Travers 5 2 2 0
Thomas Bryant 12 2 6 0
Craig Porter Jr. 15 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes alley oop dunk shot (Darius Garland assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
16%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
3 Darius Garland CLE
12%
4 De'Andre Hunter CLE
11%
5 Jaylon Tyson CLE
10%
6 Moses Moody GS
9%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
8 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE
8%
9 Al Horford GS
7%
10 Will Richard GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
9%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 30.6 5.2 6.5
2 Evan Mobley CLE 20.1 9.6 4.2
3 Darius Garland CLE 15.7 3.3 6.2
4 Jaylon Tyson CLE 15.1 6.6 2.1
5 De'Andre Hunter CLE 14.2 4.0 2.2
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.5 4.2 2.7
7 Moses Moody GS 11.7 3.8 1.6
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS 10.9 5.4 2.1
9 Buddy Hield GS 8.4 3.2 1.6
10 Pat Spencer GS 7.7 2.5 3.0
11 Lonzo Ball CLE 7.6 4.8 4.2
12 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 7.5 3.9 2.4
13 Quinten Post GS 7.4 3.6 1.5
14 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 7.4 3.2 1.0
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.7 4.4 2.0
16 Will Richard GS 6.7 3.0 1.1
17 Al Horford GS 6.3 4.3 2.0
18 Gary Payton II GS 6.2 3.6 2.1
19 Chris Livingston CLE 4.7 2.0 0.6
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.6 3.4 0.9
21 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.4 2.3 0.6
22 Gui Santos GS 3.6 1.9 0.7
23 Luke Travers CLE 3.2 2.5 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.