NBA games

ATL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
131–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL35352734131
WSH28273823116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home WSH
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 39 30 12 12
Onyeka Okongwu S 36 21 9 6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 32 17 4 4
Luke Kennard 23 15 3 2
Vit Krejci 31 14 2 2
Dyson Daniels S 36 12 6 3
Asa Newell 12 11 3 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 19 7 5 3
Mouhamed Gueye 9 4 1 0
Keaton Wallace 4 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 36 28 0 3
Tristan Vukcevic 27 18 5 4
Justin Champagnie S 32 16 5 3
Kyshawn George S 36 15 6 7
Will Riley 19 15 1 0
Bub Carrington S 37 14 2 9
Marvin Bagley III S 19 6 3 2
Malaki Branham 14 2 1 1
Jamir Watkins 16 2 3 0
AJ Johnson 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
2 Trae Young ATL
11%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 Kyshawn George WSH
11%
5 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
10%
6 CJ McCollum WSH
10%
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
9 Marvin Bagley III WSH
8%
10 Jamir Watkins WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
43%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 27.5 11.5 9.9
2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 24.2 4.7 4.0
3 CJ McCollum WSH 20.7 3.6 3.8
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 20.3 6.5 4.4
5 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 19.6 6.2 3.0
6 Trae Young ATL 18.4 3.2 8.8
7 Kyshawn George WSH 16.7 5.9 5.6
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 15.9 7.5 6.4
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.7 3.3 2.0
10 Vit Krejci ATL 10.2 2.8 2.1
11 Marvin Bagley III WSH 9.3 6.0 1.3
12 Cam Whitmore WSH 8.5 3.8 1.1
13 Bub Carrington WSH 7.9 2.7 3.4
14 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 7.9 3.3 1.5
15 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.6 4.2 1.0
16 Luke Kennard ATL 6.5 1.9 2.7
17 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.9 1.6 2.5
18 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.9 3.7 1.1
19 Asa Newell ATL 4.5 1.8 0.8
20 Malaki Branham WSH 4.0 1.9 1.0
21 Will Riley WSH 3.9 2.1 1.1
22 Jamir Watkins WSH 3.5 2.2 0.6
23 Anthony Gill WSH 2.8 1.7 0.6
24 AJ Johnson WSH 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.