NBA games

NO @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
101–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO24203126101
BKN35273423119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home BKN
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 35 23 5 5
Saddiq Bey S 33 18 5 2
Bryce McGowens S 24 16 2 2
Jeremiah Fears S 33 14 2 5
Jose Alvarado 30 9 2 6
Jordan Hawkins 14 6 2 1
Derik Queen S 26 6 9 5
Yves Missi 18 4 6 2
Karlo Matkovic 11 3 2 0
Micah Peavy 16 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 35 9 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 16 3 3
Nic Claxton S 29 14 11 10
Noah Clowney S 30 10 6 0
Terance Mann S 26 10 5 4
Ziaire Williams 15 9 1 0
Egor Demin S 25 8 4 7
Danny Wolf 19 7 4 2
Ben Saraf 20 7 1 4
Drake Powell 21 3 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes 1-foot driving dunk (Egor Demin assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Derik Queen NO
11%
2 Jeremiah Fears NO
10%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
4 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
9%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
6 Saddiq Bey NO
8%
7 Egor Demin BKN
8%
8 Yves Missi NO
8%
9 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
10 Terance Mann BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
35%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 26.2 6.8 4.3
2 Trey Murphy III NO 23.1 6.0 3.8
3 Jeremiah Fears NO 18.8 4.2 3.5
4 Noah Clowney BKN 18.4 4.0 2.3
5 Derik Queen NO 16.0 6.6 4.9
6 Saddiq Bey NO 15.9 7.1 2.4
7 Nic Claxton BKN 13.8 8.5 5.1
8 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.2 3.2 1.6
9 Egor Demin BKN 10.8 3.4 4.0
10 Jose Alvarado NO 10.7 3.4 2.9
11 Tyrese Martin BKN 10.6 3.4 2.8
12 Terance Mann BKN 9.4 3.6 3.6
13 Bryce McGowens NO 8.5 2.7 1.5
14 Micah Peavy NO 8.4 3.1 1.6
15 Danny Wolf BKN 8.1 3.3 2.2
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.2 5.5 1.6
17 Drake Powell BKN 7.2 2.2 2.1
18 Jordan Hawkins NO 6.7 2.2 1.2
19 Ben Saraf BKN 6.5 1.7 3.0
20 Karlo Matkovic NO 6.1 3.6 1.1
21 Yves Missi NO 5.4 5.6 1.0
22 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.1 1.6 0.9
23 Trey Alexander NO 4.4 1.5 0.9
24 Kevon Looney NO 3.4 3.4 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.