NBA games

DAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
111–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL27212637111
OKC27364128132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home OKC
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Hardy 20 23 2 2
Naji Marshall S 27 18 1 2
Cooper Flagg S 29 16 2 2
D'Angelo Russell 16 12 3 3
Max Christie S 22 12 3 0
Ryan Nembhard S 24 10 3 4
Brandon Williams 24 9 3 7
Klay Thompson 18 3 5 0
Caleb Martin 12 3 0 0
Dwight Powell 16 3 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 33 5 6
Jalen Williams S 24 15 8 5
Chet Holmgren S 23 15 8 1
Aaron Wiggins 20 11 2 3
Cason Wallace S 23 11 4 1
Kenrich Williams 20 10 1 3
Branden Carlson 22 9 6 3
Ajay Mitchell 23 9 0 2
Ousmane Dieng 22 7 1 1
Brooks Barnhizer 8 5 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ryan Nembhard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Ryan Nembhard makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
16%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
14%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
12%
4 Anthony Davis DAL
10%
5 Ajay Mitchell OKC
8%
6 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
7 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
8 Naji Marshall DAL
8%
9 Ryan Nembhard DAL
7%
10 Max Christie DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
39%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.3 4.5 6.6
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 21.5 6.8 3.8
3 Anthony Davis DAL 21.1 10.3 3.1
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.9 6.2 6.3
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.0 7.6 2.3
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 14.9 4.2 2.5
7 Ajay Mitchell OKC 13.5 3.6 3.8
8 Naji Marshall DAL 13.3 5.8 2.9
9 Brandon Williams DAL 11.4 3.1 4.6
10 Klay Thompson DAL 11.3 2.7 1.2
11 Max Christie DAL 11.1 3.0 1.5
12 Cason Wallace OKC 10.3 3.1 2.3
13 D'Angelo Russell DAL 10.1 2.7 3.5
14 Ryan Nembhard DAL 8.4 1.8 4.2
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 7.6 4.7 2.7
16 Branden Carlson OKC 5.0 2.6 0.9
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.0 2.3 1.0
18 Jaden Hardy DAL 3.8 0.9 0.5
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.4 1.6 0.8
20 Moussa Cisse DAL 2.7 3.3 0.2
21 Dwight Powell DAL 2.3 2.0 0.8
22 Caleb Martin DAL 2.3 2.0 0.8
23 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.0 0.8 0.5
24 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 1.8 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.