NBA games

PHI @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
116–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI33362423116
MIL20292824101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MIL
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes 29 22 4 5
Paul George S 30 20 5 5
Jabari Walker 18 18 2 1
VJ Edgecombe S 24 12 4 1
Tyrese Maxey S 37 12 4 4
Adem Bona 24 10 6 0
Jared McCain 23 8 6 4
Dominick Barlow S 21 6 4 2
Andre Drummond S 23 5 6 2
Kyle Lowry 10 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bobby Portis 23 22 4 0
Kevin Porter Jr. S 37 20 7 9
Myles Turner S 23 19 2 2
Ryan Rollins S 35 16 6 7
Kyle Kuzma 29 14 5 1
Gary Trent Jr. 24 6 1 3
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 1 2 0 0
Jericho Sims S 30 2 9 0
Pete Nance 1 0 0 0
Gary Harris 21 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ryan Rollins MIL
13%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
3 Paul George PHI
12%
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
12%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
11%
6 Quentin Grimes PHI
11%
7 Myles Turner MIL
10%
8 Dominick Barlow PHI
10%
9 AJ Green MIL
8%
10 Bobby Portis MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
41%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 29.2 4.0 7.2
2 Ryan Rollins MIL 20.2 4.4 6.8
3 Quentin Grimes PHI 17.9 4.0 4.9
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 16.6 3.0 5.2
5 Paul George PHI 13.6 4.8 3.1
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 13.4 5.9 3.9
7 Bobby Portis MIL 12.4 5.7 1.7
8 AJ Green MIL 12.2 3.7 2.6
9 Myles Turner MIL 11.8 6.0 1.6
10 Kyle Kuzma MIL 11.2 4.1 3.0
11 Dominick Barlow PHI 10.2 6.1 1.9
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.2 1.8 1.5
13 Andre Drummond PHI 9.0 9.3 1.2
14 Jared McCain PHI 8.9 2.3 1.6
15 Justin Edwards PHI 8.2 2.7 2.0
16 Jericho Sims MIL 5.3 4.5 1.1
17 Cole Anthony MIL 5.3 2.1 3.8
18 Jabari Walker PHI 5.0 3.5 1.0
19 Adem Bona PHI 4.4 4.0 0.5
20 Eric Gordon PHI 3.9 1.0 0.7
21 Gary Harris MIL 3.8 1.4 1.2
22 Pete Nance MIL 3.4 1.0 0.5
23 Johni Broome PHI 3.0 2.4 0.6
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.9 1.2 0.3
25 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.9 0.9 1.0
26 Amir Coffey MIL 1.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.