NBA games

LAC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
98–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC3325231798
MEM30243023107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MEM
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 35 24 8 4
James Harden S 36 18 2 7
John Collins S 25 16 2 2
Kobe Brown 21 13 4 1
Ivica Zubac S 35 10 6 1
Kobe Sanders 27 8 7 0
Nicolas Batum 31 6 3 4
Cam Christie 10 3 2 0
Kris Dunn S 21 0 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cedric Coward S 28 23 14 5
Cam Spencer 29 17 5 7
Jaylen Wells S 27 17 3 0
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 31 13 3 0
Zach Edey S 29 10 8 1
Santi Aldama 25 7 6 4
Jock Landale 17 7 1 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 19 5 0 5
John Konchar 16 5 1 1
Vince Williams Jr. S 19 3 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Wells · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jaylen Wells makes 26-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
2 Zach Edey MEM
12%
3 Jaylen Wells MEM
11%
4 James Harden LAC
11%
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
6 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
7 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
9%
8 Cedric Coward MEM
8%
9 John Collins LAC
8%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
34%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 27.3 4.8 8.0
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 26.0 5.8 3.6
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.7 5.1 3.1
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 17.2 11.8 3.6
5 Zach Edey MEM 15.5 11.2 1.5
6 Santi Aldama MEM 14.0 6.3 3.8
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.7 3.2 2.0
8 Cedric Coward MEM 12.9 5.3 2.2
9 John Collins LAC 12.6 5.6 1.1
10 Cam Spencer MEM 12.4 2.4 4.7
11 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 11.1 4.9 7.6
12 Kris Dunn LAC 10.2 3.0 3.2
13 Jock Landale MEM 9.9 5.3 1.6
14 Kobe Sanders LAC 9.3 2.4 1.7
15 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 6.4 2.1 2.8
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.8 2.8 1.0
17 Kobe Brown LAC 5.1 2.1 1.1
18 Cam Christie LAC 4.5 2.4 0.7
19 Brook Lopez LAC 4.1 1.2 0.6
20 John Konchar MEM 4.0 2.7 1.4
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 3.8 2.2 0.7
22 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.1 1.9 0.6
23 RayJ Dennis LAC 2.5 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.