NBA games

PHX @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
98–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX3127142698
HOU24442920117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home HOU
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 31 23 4 4
Jamaree Bouyea 18 18 2 1
Collin Gillespie S 29 13 2 3
Mark Williams S 17 10 3 0
Grayson Allen S 26 9 2 0
Jordan Goodwin 22 9 5 2
Ryan Dunn 18 4 4 0
Oso Ighodaro 23 3 3 1
Rasheer Fleming 8 3 2 0
Nick Richards 8 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 32 31 4 1
Kevin Durant S 32 28 4 8
Jabari Smith Jr. S 28 16 2 2
Reed Sheppard 21 10 5 6
Aaron Holiday 29 10 1 2
Jae'Sean Tate 19 8 2 1
Josh Okogie S 16 6 4 1
Steven Adams S 30 4 8 3
Clint Capela 18 4 7 1
JD Davison 7 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dillon Brooks · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Dillon Brooks makes 11-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
17%
2 Dillon Brooks PHX
15%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
12%
4 Mark Williams PHX
12%
5 Kevin Durant HOU
11%
6 Royce O'Neale PHX
9%
7 Josh Okogie HOU
8%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
9 Collin Gillespie PHX
8%
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
38%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 25.6 5.1 5.0
2 Dillon Brooks PHX 22.6 3.6 2.2
3 Amen Thompson HOU 19.5 7.6 5.3
4 Collin Gillespie PHX 18.1 3.9 4.8
5 Grayson Allen PHX 17.6 3.3 3.8
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.0 6.6 2.0
7 Reed Sheppard HOU 15.5 4.1 3.2
8 Mark Williams PHX 12.8 8.0 1.5
9 Jordan Goodwin PHX 11.0 5.3 2.4
10 Tari Eason HOU 9.8 3.9 1.7
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.2 4.4 2.3
12 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.8 1.6 1.4
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 7.2 3.7 1.8
14 Steven Adams HOU 7.0 8.2 1.3
15 Josh Okogie HOU 5.7 3.1 1.1
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.5 3.7 1.5
17 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 4.2 1.2 1.1
18 Jeff Green HOU 3.8 1.5 0.6
19 JD Davison HOU 3.8 1.2 1.3
20 Clint Capela HOU 3.3 4.1 0.6
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.2 1.6 0.6
22 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.5 1.3 0.5
23 Nick Richards PHX 2.5 3.0 0.3
24 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 1.8 1.0 0.4
25 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.7 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.