NBA games

IND @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
120–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND30323028120
CHI33242622105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CHI
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 31 36 10 1
Bennedict Mathurin S 38 28 5 3
Andrew Nembhard S 33 15 2 7
Jay Huff S 28 11 4 5
Ethan Thompson 34 11 2 3
Isaiah Jackson 18 7 3 0
Garrison Mathews S 15 3 3 0
Jarace Walker 9 3 1 0
Tony Bradley 1 2 1 0
T.J. McConnell 14 2 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 26 22 3 6
Matas Buzelis S 35 19 12 2
Jevon Carter 22 14 3 1
Josh Giddey S 33 9 7 6
Patrick Williams 26 9 3 0
Zach Collins 21 8 6 1
Nikola Vucevic S 26 8 4 2
Dalen Terry 20 7 3 0
Julian Phillips S 23 5 4 1
Emanuel Miller 7 4 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Coby White makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Coby White CHI
13%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
3 Andrew Nembhard IND
13%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
12%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
7 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
8 Julian Phillips CHI
8%
9 Jay Huff IND
8%
10 Garrison Mathews IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
50%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
15%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 25.9 3.6 6.4
2 Pascal Siakam IND 24.9 6.8 3.8
3 Josh Giddey CHI 24.1 10.0 8.4
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.7 3.3 6.6
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 20.6 5.0 3.2
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.9 9.3 3.5
7 Tre Jones CHI 15.6 3.7 4.3
8 Matas Buzelis CHI 13.0 6.0 2.1
9 Zach Collins CHI 10.9 4.6 2.0
10 Jarace Walker IND 10.5 4.9 1.7
11 T.J. McConnell IND 9.8 3.5 5.1
12 Jay Huff IND 9.5 4.5 1.6
13 Isaiah Jackson IND 8.1 5.8 1.2
14 Patrick Williams CHI 6.6 3.4 1.3
15 Jevon Carter CHI 6.1 1.8 1.2
16 Garrison Mathews IND 5.7 1.4 1.2
17 Johnny Furphy IND 5.5 2.4 0.9
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 5.4 3.7 1.0
19 Ethan Thompson IND 5.3 1.7 1.7
20 Tony Bradley IND 5.0 2.1 0.8
21 Julian Phillips CHI 5.0 2.2 0.7
22 Dalen Terry CHI 3.7 2.2 1.3
23 Taelon Peter IND 3.5 1.8 1.3
24 Emanuel Miller CHI 3.3 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.