NBA games

CHA @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
111–86
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA18352533111
TOR2418281686

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home TOR
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kon Knueppel S 32 21 3 7
Tidjane Salaun 22 21 3 1
Miles Bridges S 32 15 9 5
Brandon Miller S 30 12 3 2
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 26 12 6 1
LaMelo Ball S 12 11 2 3
KJ Simpson 28 8 3 4
Sion James 14 3 3 1
Moussa Diabate 16 3 4 1
Liam McNeeley 18 2 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 31 31 3 4
Scottie Barnes S 31 13 3 5
Jamal Shead 21 9 5 1
Brandon Ingram S 29 7 9 2
Collin Murray-Boyles 19 7 2 1
Jakob Poeltl S 23 5 7 1
Gradey Dick 21 4 1 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 16 3 3 1
Jamison Battle 14 3 3 1
Jonathan Mogbo 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes 10-foot pullup jump shot (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mason Plumlee CHA
12%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
4 LaMelo Ball CHA
9%
5 Brandon Ingram TOR
8%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
7 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
8 Moussa Diabate CHA
7%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
6%
10 Immanuel Quickley TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
64%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
21%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 24.7 5.9 4.6
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.6 8.3 5.7
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.9 5.3 7.8
4 Miles Bridges CHA 19.1 5.0 2.9
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 18.8 4.8 3.7
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.9 4.4 6.7
7 Brandon Miller CHA 16.5 2.4 3.4
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.2 9.3 2.9
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.7 5.4 1.9
10 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 9.3 6.9 0.8
11 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.1 3.0 1.3
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 7.5 7.7 1.6
13 Sion James CHA 6.6 3.1 1.5
14 Jamal Shead TOR 6.6 2.0 5.3
15 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 6.3 2.8 1.4
16 Gradey Dick TOR 6.3 1.9 1.1
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.5 3.6 1.0
18 KJ Simpson CHA 5.2 1.8 2.3
19 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.2 2.3 0.8
20 Antonio Reeves CHA 3.9 1.2 0.6
21 Jamison Battle TOR 3.8 1.7 0.7
22 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.7 2.0 0.7
23 Garrett Temple TOR 2.2 0.7 0.4
24 Mason Plumlee CHA 1.2 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.