NBA games

UTAH @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
112–146
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH13343035112
NY41274731146

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home NY
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 26 18 9 2
Keyonte George S 28 18 0 4
Isaiah Collier 24 13 0 7
Ace Bailey S 34 13 5 1
Walter Clayton Jr. 19 11 1 4
Kyle Filipowski 30 10 8 3
Brice Sensabaugh 12 8 2 1
Kevin Love 17 7 2 1
Kyle Anderson 12 7 1 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 19 4 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 31 33 2 4
Miles McBride 22 22 3 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 22 18 9 4
Jordan Clarkson 31 16 4 5
OG Anunoby S 23 11 0 1
Guerschon Yabusele 9 11 2 0
Mikal Bridges S 20 10 5 3
Josh Hart S 28 8 6 6
Tyler Kolek 14 7 2 1
Mitchell Robinson 16 4 7 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:17 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
14%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
5 OG Anunoby NY
8%
6 Josh Hart NY
8%
7 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
7%
8 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
7%
9 Ace Bailey UTAH
6%
10 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
26%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.5 3.4 7.0
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 26.5 11.1 4.4
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 25.1 6.6 2.4
4 Keyonte George UTAH 25.1 4.3 6.8
5 Mikal Bridges NY 20.0 4.8 3.8
6 Josh Hart NY 19.2 9.1 6.8
7 OG Anunoby NY 15.7 4.3 2.6
8 Miles McBride NY 14.4 3.1 2.6
9 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 11.9 6.8 2.4
10 Jordan Clarkson NY 11.8 3.1 2.1
11 Ace Bailey UTAH 11.7 3.4 2.0
12 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 11.2 9.2 4.8
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.4 2.6 2.3
14 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.3 2.9 1.5
15 Isaiah Collier UTAH 7.7 2.5 4.4
16 Kyle Anderson UTAH 6.4 2.8 3.4
17 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 6.1 2.1 3.3
18 Kevin Love UTAH 5.4 3.8 1.2
19 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.8 7.7 0.9
20 Tyler Kolek NY 4.8 1.5 2.5
21 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 4.2 3.1 0.6
22 Cody Williams UTAH 3.7 1.5 0.6
23 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.5 2.2 0.8
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.7 2.6 0.7
25 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.6 1.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.