NBA games

POR @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
116–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR28302731116
DET30351938122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home DET
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 38 35 9 7
Jerami Grant S 34 29 6 4
Shaedon Sharpe 35 28 5 3
Robert Williams III S 30 8 14 1
Sidy Cissoko S 22 8 1 2
Duop Reath 13 7 3 0
Toumani Camara S 24 1 2 4
Kris Murray 28 0 6 1
Rayan Rupert 3 0 0 0
Caleb Love 12 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 29 4 9
Jalen Duren S 27 18 8 0
Ronald Holland II 20 17 3 0
Ausar Thompson S 25 15 4 2
Duncan Robinson S 34 14 7 0
Tobias Harris S 31 10 4 4
Isaiah Stewart 22 9 1 1
Caris LeVert 16 4 2 3
Daniss Jenkins 14 4 1 3
Jaden Ivey 10 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
17%
2 Tobias Harris DET
11%
3 Deni Avdija POR
9%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
5 Jerami Grant POR
9%
6 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
8 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
9 Daniss Jenkins DET
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
61%
Jumper
11%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.2 8.4 9.6
2 Deni Avdija POR 26.1 7.3 7.7
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.6 5.1 3.4
4 Jerami Grant POR 21.2 4.5 3.2
5 Jalen Duren DET 20.6 12.1 2.9
6 Tobias Harris DET 16.5 4.3 2.3
7 Duncan Robinson DET 14.1 3.4 2.6
8 Toumani Camara POR 14.0 5.8 2.8
9 Donovan Clingan POR 12.4 10.3 2.0
10 Caris LeVert DET 11.8 2.5 3.6
11 Ausar Thompson DET 11.3 5.7 2.9
12 Caleb Love POR 10.8 3.1 2.1
13 Daniss Jenkins DET 10.1 2.6 4.5
14 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.0 6.5 1.3
15 Paul Reed DET 8.6 5.9 1.5
16 Jaden Ivey DET 7.7 2.2 1.2
17 Kris Murray POR 7.5 4.0 1.4
18 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.3 2.6 1.8
19 Javonte Green DET 7.1 2.7 1.1
20 Blake Wesley POR 6.4 2.5 2.8
21 Ronald Holland II DET 6.3 3.0 1.7
22 Robert Williams III POR 5.8 5.8 0.6
23 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.0 1.2 0.8
24 Chaz Lanier DET 3.6 1.1 0.8
25 Duop Reath POR 3.4 1.3 0.5
26 Rayan Rupert POR 3.2 2.0 0.6
27 Javonte Cooke POR 2.2 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.