NBA games

SA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
117–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA35371926117
CLE30344422130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home CLE
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 30 28 3 3
De'Aaron Fox S 33 25 5 9
Keldon Johnson 25 14 7 0
Julian Champagnie S 35 11 4 1
Jeremy Sochan 25 10 5 1
David Jones Garcia 10 9 0 4
Harrison Barnes S 29 7 4 3
Bismack Biyombo S 10 4 0 1
Lindy Waters III 6 3 2 0
Dylan Harper 23 3 4 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 32 28 2 8
Jaylon Tyson S 33 24 6 2
Evan Mobley S 32 17 10 5
Nae'Qwan Tomlin S 18 13 2 2
Dean Wade 29 12 8 5
Craig Porter Jr. 24 11 7 1
De'Andre Hunter S 21 11 3 0
Thomas Bryant 16 8 3 2
Chris Livingston 2 2 0 0
Luke Travers 11 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bismack Biyombo · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Bismack Biyombo makes alley oop dunk shot (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Andre Hunter CLE
15%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
14%
3 Devin Vassell SA
14%
4 Harrison Barnes SA
13%
5 Jaylon Tyson CLE
12%
6 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
7 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
9 Bismack Biyombo SA
0%
10 Kelly Olynyk SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
24%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.9 5.7 6.6
2 De'Aaron Fox SA 26.5 4.1 6.7
3 Evan Mobley CLE 21.5 9.6 4.3
4 Devin Vassell SA 17.6 4.2 2.8
5 De'Andre Hunter CLE 15.2 3.9 2.6
6 Keldon Johnson SA 15.0 7.0 2.1
7 Harrison Barnes SA 14.1 4.1 2.4
8 Jaylon Tyson CLE 13.9 6.4 2.1
9 Dylan Harper SA 13.1 3.3 3.6
10 Julian Champagnie SA 12.1 5.2 1.6
11 Lonzo Ball CLE 7.5 4.7 4.4
12 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.5 3.2 2.4
13 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 6.4 3.4 0.9
14 Jeremy Sochan SA 6.1 3.6 1.4
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.1 3.9 1.7
16 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.7 2.3 1.4
17 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.2 2.5 0.7
18 Chris Livingston CLE 4.0 1.6 0.5
19 Carter Bryant SA 3.3 2.0 0.5
20 Lindy Waters III SA 3.2 1.3 0.6
21 David Jones Garcia SA 3.2 1.7 1.2
22 Luke Travers CLE 2.5 1.8 0.6
23 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.6 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.