NBA games

DEN @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
134–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN23314040134
ATL41323030133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home ATL
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 36 40 9 8
Jamal Murray S 38 23 5 12
Tim Hardaway Jr. 27 17 6 0
Cameron Johnson S 35 16 4 2
Bruce Brown 32 13 3 0
Peyton Watson S 28 9 6 2
Jonas Valanciunas 12 8 4 2
Spencer Jones S 24 6 4 2
Zeke Nnaji 8 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 34 30 5 1
Kristaps Porzingis 20 25 2 1
Jalen Johnson S 38 21 18 16
Vit Krejci 28 15 2 2
Dyson Daniels S 34 15 3 8
Onyeka Okongwu S 28 13 6 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 21 9 3 0
Mouhamed Gueye 10 3 3 0
Luke Kennard 18 2 1 1
Keaton Wallace 10 0 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dyson Daniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Dyson Daniels makes 2-foot driving floating jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
9%
2 Trae Young ATL
9%
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
5 Peyton Watson DEN
8%
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
7 Nikola Jokic DEN
7%
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
7%
9 Cameron Johnson DEN
7%
10 Jalen Johnson ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
26%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.8 11.7 10.2
2 Jamal Murray DEN 27.3 4.3 7.5
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 27.2 10.6 9.5
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.6 4.4 4.0
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 21.4 6.5 4.1
6 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 18.8 5.7 3.2
7 Trae Young ATL 18.0 2.9 8.6
8 Peyton Watson DEN 16.1 6.4 2.1
9 Cameron Johnson DEN 15.5 4.2 2.9
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 15.0 7.2 6.5
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 12.5 2.6 1.8
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.4 3.1 2.0
13 Vit Krejci ATL 8.9 2.6 2.0
14 Bruce Brown DEN 8.0 3.4 2.4
15 Luke Kennard ATL 6.6 1.7 2.6
16 Spencer Jones DEN 6.3 3.1 1.1
17 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 6.3 4.5 1.0
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.2 3.7 1.0
19 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.6 1.3 2.5
20 Asa Newell ATL 4.4 1.5 0.7
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.8 1.4 1.1
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.6 2.1 0.6
23 Curtis Jones DEN 3.5 1.3 0.9
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.4 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.