NBA games

MIA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
105–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA28321926105
ORL30273019106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ORL
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 32 28 3 4
Bam Adebayo S 40 24 15 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 33 16 3 2
Andrew Wiggins S 34 13 5 1
Davion Mitchell S 28 10 2 7
Dru Smith 17 5 4 2
Simone Fontecchio 16 5 3 2
Kel'el Ware S 22 4 8 1
Pelle Larsson 19 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 34 32 5 3
Jalen Suggs S 28 22 3 5
Anthony Black 32 13 8 6
Paolo Banchero S 20 9 6 2
Goga Bitadze 20 8 8 1
Tyus Jones 16 7 0 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 7 7 1
Desmond Bane S 33 5 0 3
Tristan da Silva 25 3 5 0
Jase Richardson 4 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
9%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
6 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
7 Paolo Banchero ORL
8%
8 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
9 Norman Powell MIA
7%
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
31%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 25.2 6.1 4.6
2 Desmond Bane ORL 24.3 5.0 5.3
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.6 8.5 5.0
4 Norman Powell MIA 23.1 3.8 2.9
5 Tyler Herro MIA 22.9 4.9 2.7
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 19.1 5.6 3.6
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 18.8 4.9 5.6
8 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.8 8.5 2.2
9 Anthony Black ORL 17.7 4.4 4.0
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.4 4.8 5.0
11 Kel'el Ware MIA 14.1 10.7 1.1
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.2 7.5 2.5
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 11.9 4.5 1.8
14 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.8 3.0 7.4
15 Pelle Larsson MIA 9.6 3.1 3.7
16 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.2 3.1 1.8
17 Jett Howard ORL 7.1 1.8 1.0
18 Dru Smith MIA 6.9 3.3 2.1
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.9 5.6 1.7
20 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.7 3.7 2.6
21 Tyus Jones ORL 4.7 1.5 2.6
22 Noah Penda ORL 4.6 3.6 1.2
23 Jase Richardson ORL 4.2 1.7 1.2
24 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.2 4.1 0.6
25 Jahmir Young MIA 3.5 0.7 1.0
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.8 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.