NBA games

LAL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
105–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL17293623105
BOS39302829126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home BOS
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 33 36 3 8
Gabe Vincent S 30 18 1 1
Rui Hachimura S 29 13 7 0
Nick Smith Jr. 24 13 2 0
Jake LaRavia S 21 6 1 1
Deandre Ayton S 28 6 10 0
Bronny James 7 5 0 1
Dalton Knecht 14 5 1 1
Jaxson Hayes 14 3 4 0
Drew Timme 7 0 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 34 30 8 8
Derrick White S 30 19 5 6
Jordan Walsh S 26 17 4 1
Payton Pritchard S 30 15 2 6
Sam Hauser 24 12 3 0
Neemias Queta S 26 10 6 2
Anfernee Simons 16 8 4 2
Josh Minott 23 6 3 3
Hugo Gonzalez 8 4 2 0
Baylor Scheierman 15 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Walsh · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Jordan Walsh makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton LAL
13%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
3 Payton Pritchard BOS
12%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 Jordan Walsh BOS
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
9 Sam Hauser BOS
7%
10 Gabe Vincent LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
27%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
20%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 30.8 7.1 6.7
2 Austin Reaves LAL 27.3 5.8 5.5
3 Payton Pritchard BOS 21.3 4.7 5.1
4 Derrick White BOS 20.0 4.7 6.1
5 Deandre Ayton LAL 15.4 9.1 1.4
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.9 3.5 1.0
7 Anfernee Simons BOS 11.8 2.6 3.4
8 Neemias Queta BOS 11.6 8.0 1.5
9 Jordan Walsh BOS 9.2 5.5 1.7
10 Jake LaRavia LAL 7.0 3.2 1.3
11 Josh Minott BOS 7.0 3.7 1.4
12 Luka Garza BOS 6.9 3.6 1.0
13 Sam Hauser BOS 6.8 3.2 1.8
14 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.3 2.4 0.8
15 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 6.2 1.8 1.5
16 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.9 1.6 1.7
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.8 3.7 0.9
18 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.3 2.0 1.2
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.9 4.2 1.1
20 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.9 2.4 0.8
21 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.9 2.2 0.8
22 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.1 1.8 0.7
23 Chris Boucher BOS 2.9 2.3 0.4
24 Bronny James LAL 2.8 1.0 1.5
25 Adou Thiero LAL 2.5 1.2 0.5
26 Drew Timme LAL 2.3 1.5 0.4
27 Amari Williams BOS 1.6 1.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.