NBA games

MIN @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
125–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN35272637125
NO30322826116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home NO
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 37 28 9 3
Naz Reid 33 19 7 6
Donte DiVincenzo S 32 15 4 3
Rudy Gobert S 24 15 12 3
Jaden McDaniels S 35 14 7 5
Jaylen Clark 14 12 2 0
Anthony Edwards S 31 11 6 4
Terrence Shannon Jr. 9 7 1 0
Mike Conley 17 2 1 3
Rob Dillingham 8 2 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 34 21 7 8
Jeremiah Fears S 34 20 7 6
Saddiq Bey S 33 20 6 1
Bryce McGowens S 34 15 3 5
Jose Alvarado 22 13 3 1
Derik Queen S 29 12 4 5
Karlo Matkovic 19 8 6 1
Jordan Hawkins 16 7 3 1
Trey Alexander 5 0 0 0
Micah Peavy 15 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donte DiVincenzo · Layup (2 pts) · 11:55 Q1
"Donte DiVincenzo makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Derik Queen NO
13%
2 Jeremiah Fears NO
12%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Trey Murphy III NO
11%
5 Julius Randle MIN
11%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 Saddiq Bey NO
9%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
9 Bryce McGowens NO
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
27%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
29%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.1 4.7 5.5
2 Trey Murphy III NO 23.6 5.9 3.4
3 Julius Randle MIN 22.5 7.3 6.5
4 Jeremiah Fears NO 18.7 4.3 2.9
5 Naz Reid MIN 17.0 6.0 3.2
6 Derik Queen NO 16.2 7.0 4.7
7 Saddiq Bey NO 15.6 7.2 2.9
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 15.0 4.2 3.9
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 14.2 5.0 3.2
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.8 10.4 2.4
11 Jose Alvarado NO 11.6 3.2 3.1
12 Micah Peavy NO 8.3 2.9 1.4
13 Bryce McGowens NO 7.2 2.3 1.2
14 Mike Conley MIN 6.1 1.8 2.6
15 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.9 1.9 1.1
16 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 5.4 1.7 0.9
17 Trey Alexander NO 4.7 1.8 1.0
18 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.4 2.2 0.7
19 Karlo Matkovic NO 3.8 2.5 0.7
20 Kevon Looney NO 3.7 3.6 1.0
21 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.6 1.7 1.5
22 Bones Hyland MIN 3.1 1.1 1.0
23 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.1 1.3 0.5
24 Leonard Miller MIN 3.0 1.3 0.8
25 Joan Beringer MIN 2.5 1.5 0.4
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.7 0.3 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.