NBA games

LAL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
123–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL31363323123
TOR26324022120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home TOR
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 41 44 5 10
Deandre Ayton S 32 17 8 0
Jake LaRavia 28 14 7 0
Rui Hachimura S 35 12 3 0
Nick Smith Jr. 14 12 2 0
LeBron James S 36 8 6 11
Gabe Vincent S 24 5 2 4
Adou Thiero 10 4 1 1
Jaxson Hayes 16 4 4 0
Dalton Knecht 3 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 36 23 11 9
Brandon Ingram S 36 20 7 7
Ja'Kobe Walter S 25 17 3 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 37 13 8 5
Immanuel Quickley S 32 13 1 5
Collin Murray-Boyles 16 12 2 3
Jamison Battle 16 10 3 1
Gradey Dick 16 8 1 0
Jamal Shead 21 4 2 6
Jonathan Mogbo 5 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
14%
2 Deandre Ayton LAL
14%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
13%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
7 Jamison Battle TOR
9%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
9 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
8%
10 Gabe Vincent LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
35%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Austin Reaves LAL 25.4 5.9 5.2
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 24.4 5.5 4.2
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.1 7.9 5.5
4 LeBron James LAL 17.7 4.3 6.8
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.4 4.6 6.7
6 Deandre Ayton LAL 14.8 9.2 1.3
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.1 3.4 1.0
8 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.3 4.6 1.5
9 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.7 2.6 1.2
10 Jake LaRavia LAL 6.2 2.7 1.4
11 Jamal Shead TOR 6.2 1.7 5.0
12 Gradey Dick TOR 6.2 2.2 1.1
13 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.0 2.4 0.9
14 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 5.9 1.5 1.6
15 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 5.9 3.2 1.2
16 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.8 1.5 1.6
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.4 3.6 0.9
18 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.4 1.6 0.7
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.7 4.2 1.1
20 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.4 2.0 0.7
21 Bronny James LAL 3.2 1.2 1.5
22 Adou Thiero LAL 2.2 1.0 0.4
23 Jamison Battle TOR 2.1 1.0 0.4
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.9 0.7 0.4
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.7 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.