NBA games

GS @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
98–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS1024323298
PHI3026241999

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home PHI
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pat Spencer 24 16 4 4
De'Anthony Melton 21 14 1 3
Moses Moody S 23 14 2 2
Buddy Hield 26 14 8 2
Quinten Post 25 10 3 4
Jonathan Kuminga 20 9 6 2
Brandin Podziemski S 20 6 6 0
Will Richard S 20 5 0 2
Gui Santos 12 4 1 1
Draymond Green S 9 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 40 35 3 2
Quentin Grimes S 38 12 5 6
Joel Embiid S 25 12 6 3
VJ Edgecombe S 24 10 6 5
Justin Edwards 22 8 3 1
Jabari Walker 12 7 5 0
Jared McCain 21 7 1 3
Dominick Barlow S 35 6 14 3
Adem Bona 6 2 2 0
Andre Drummond 17 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes 11-foot two point shot (VJ Edgecombe assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
17%
2 Draymond Green GS
13%
3 Andre Drummond PHI
11%
4 Dominick Barlow PHI
11%
5 Brandin Podziemski GS
10%
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
7 Moses Moody GS
9%
8 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
9 Will Richard GS
9%
10 Quentin Grimes PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
42%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 30.4 4.4 6.9
2 Joel Embiid PHI 20.7 6.2 4.1
3 Quentin Grimes PHI 17.8 4.1 4.5
4 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.6 4.4 3.2
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 13.2 5.8 3.8
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.9 5.9 2.6
7 Moses Moody GS 12.0 4.0 1.6
8 Andre Drummond PHI 10.8 9.6 1.3
9 Draymond Green GS 9.8 6.8 5.2
10 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.7 5.3 1.8
11 Justin Edwards PHI 9.4 2.8 2.4
12 Jared McCain PHI 8.1 2.2 1.6
13 Buddy Hield GS 7.7 2.7 1.6
14 Gary Payton II GS 7.1 4.3 2.4
15 Pat Spencer GS 6.9 2.4 3.1
16 Quinten Post GS 6.5 3.6 1.2
17 Will Richard GS 6.4 3.1 1.1
18 Jabari Walker PHI 5.5 3.7 1.0
19 Al Horford GS 5.0 3.3 1.5
20 Adem Bona PHI 4.6 4.1 0.6
21 Eric Gordon PHI 4.5 1.3 0.8
22 Johni Broome PHI 3.5 2.7 0.6
23 Hunter Sallis PHI 3.5 1.6 0.9
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.4 2.9 0.6
25 Gui Santos GS 2.7 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.