NBA games

MIA @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
108–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA33212628108
DAL28362925118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home DAL
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kel'el Ware 25 22 10 2
Bam Adebayo S 28 21 7 1
Tyler Herro S 33 20 4 0
Andrew Wiggins S 33 11 6 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 22 10 4 3
Dru Smith 18 8 4 4
Simone Fontecchio 21 8 3 2
Pelle Larsson S 23 4 0 3
Davion Mitchell S 30 4 1 9
Nikola Jovic 6 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 31 22 6 2
Naji Marshall S 36 18 5 4
Anthony Davis S 28 17 17 4
Klay Thompson 26 17 3 1
Ryan Nembhard S 34 15 5 13
D'Angelo Russell 15 10 3 2
Max Christie S 32 10 2 2
Brandon Williams 14 7 2 2
Daniel Gafford 14 2 5 0
Caleb Martin 3 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cooper Flagg DAL
14%
2 Anthony Davis DAL
13%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
11%
5 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
6 Norman Powell MIA
9%
7 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
8 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
9 Ryan Nembhard DAL
7%
10 Max Christie DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
25%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell MIA 24.3 4.0 3.2
2 Tyler Herro MIA 23.6 5.2 3.2
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 22.6 6.8 4.4
4 Anthony Davis DAL 22.2 9.9 3.2
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 19.8 5.3 3.8
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.9 8.7 2.9
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.3 6.0 5.8
8 Naji Marshall DAL 15.7 6.3 3.1
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 13.9 11.6 1.4
10 Klay Thompson DAL 13.2 2.8 1.6
11 Max Christie DAL 12.5 3.7 1.7
12 Brandon Williams DAL 12.5 3.3 5.4
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.9 3.1 7.6
14 D'Angelo Russell DAL 11.2 2.9 4.2
15 Pelle Larsson MIA 10.6 3.2 4.0
16 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.5 7.6 1.6
17 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.3 3.2 1.8
18 Ryan Nembhard DAL 8.2 1.7 3.6
19 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.8 3.9 3.1
20 Dru Smith MIA 7.0 3.6 2.2
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.0 1.3 0.9
22 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 4.8 1.6 3.3
23 Moussa Cisse DAL 3.7 4.1 0.6
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.2 2.3 0.4
25 Dwight Powell DAL 3.0 2.5 1.1
26 Caleb Martin DAL 3.0 2.4 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.