NBA games

DET @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
109–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET30223324109
MIL21282935113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MIL
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 29 20 5 0
Cade Cunningham S 35 17 7 7
Jaden Ivey 19 15 6 1
Ausar Thompson S 26 10 6 5
Paul Reed 7 9 4 1
Javonte Green 16 9 1 2
Jalen Duren S 26 8 6 3
Daniss Jenkins S 24 7 1 2
Isaiah Stewart 18 5 4 0
Ronald Holland II 17 5 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Porter Jr. S 35 26 2 7
Ryan Rollins S 39 22 4 8
AJ Green S 40 19 2 0
Jericho Sims 30 15 14 1
Bobby Portis 30 13 9 5
Myles Turner S 20 9 3 1
Kyle Kuzma 21 4 4 3
Gary Trent Jr. 22 3 1 2
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 3 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
17%
2 Ryan Rollins MIL
14%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
4 Tobias Harris DET
10%
5 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
9%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
7 Cade Cunningham DET
8%
8 Daniss Jenkins DET
7%
9 Myles Turner MIL
7%
10 AJ Green MIL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
10%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.4 7.6 9.0
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.7 9.3 6.2
3 Jalen Duren DET 21.5 11.6 2.5
4 Ryan Rollins MIL 20.0 4.5 6.2
5 Tobias Harris DET 16.3 4.5 2.5
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.6 4.6 3.3
7 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 13.4 2.8 4.4
8 Myles Turner MIL 12.2 5.8 1.7
9 AJ Green MIL 12.1 3.3 2.6
10 Bobby Portis MIL 11.6 5.2 1.5
11 Caris LeVert DET 11.4 2.4 3.5
12 Ausar Thompson DET 11.3 5.8 2.6
13 Daniss Jenkins DET 10.7 2.7 5.2
14 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.0 1.8 1.5
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.1 5.9 1.2
16 Paul Reed DET 7.1 5.4 1.3
17 Ronald Holland II DET 6.6 3.1 1.6
18 Javonte Green DET 6.6 2.8 1.1
19 Jaden Ivey DET 6.3 1.6 1.0
20 Cole Anthony MIL 6.1 2.3 3.7
21 Jericho Sims MIL 3.9 3.6 1.1
22 Gary Harris MIL 3.9 1.5 1.1
23 Pete Nance MIL 3.3 1.0 0.5
24 Chaz Lanier DET 3.2 1.0 0.7
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.0 1.1 0.3
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.0 0.9 1.0
27 Amir Coffey MIL 1.8 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.