NBA games

SAC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
95–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2626192495
HOU28233634121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home HOU
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Maxime Raynaud 32 25 6 3
Malik Monk 30 25 3 5
DeMar DeRozan S 23 12 2 0
Russell Westbrook S 28 12 4 9
Precious Achiuwa 19 10 4 0
Keegan Murray S 37 5 11 1
Zach LaVine S 19 2 1 1
Drew Eubanks S 10 2 1 0
Nique Clifford 23 2 0 2
Keon Ellis 20 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 30 28 10 3
Kevin Durant S 32 24 3 8
Amen Thompson S 37 20 12 7
Jabari Smith Jr. S 35 14 8 1
Steven Adams 18 11 8 0
Aaron Holiday 17 7 2 1
Reed Sheppard 28 5 6 1
Clint Capela 9 4 6 1
Josh Okogie S 27 3 6 1
Jeff Green 2 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Amen Thompson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Amen Thompson makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
3 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
4 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
5 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 Russell Westbrook SAC
8%
9 Drew Eubanks SAC
8%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
34%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 25.3 8.9 7.7
2 Kevin Durant HOU 25.2 5.1 5.1
3 Amen Thompson HOU 18.4 7.8 5.7
4 Zach LaVine SAC 17.3 3.3 3.1
5 Reed Sheppard HOU 17.0 4.1 3.7
6 DeMar DeRozan SAC 16.8 3.1 3.7
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.8 6.9 2.4
8 Keegan Murray SAC 15.6 6.2 1.7
9 Russell Westbrook SAC 13.9 7.2 6.7
10 Malik Monk SAC 11.3 2.7 1.9
11 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.5 1.6 1.5
12 Precious Achiuwa SAC 7.6 5.1 1.2
13 Steven Adams HOU 6.6 8.8 1.4
14 Maxime Raynaud SAC 6.4 3.6 0.8
15 Josh Okogie HOU 6.0 3.2 1.2
16 Dario Saric SAC 5.0 1.8 0.6
17 Keon Ellis SAC 4.8 1.5 0.7
18 Drew Eubanks SAC 4.4 3.3 0.7
19 Jeff Green HOU 4.0 1.7 0.7
20 JD Davison HOU 3.9 1.2 1.5
21 Nique Clifford SAC 3.7 1.7 1.0
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.6 1.9 0.7
23 Clint Capela HOU 3.6 4.4 0.7
24 Devin Carter SAC 1.8 1.0 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.