NBA games

BKN @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
113–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN29252930113
CHI24203128103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home CHI
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 33 10 5
Noah Clowney S 34 20 7 2
Nic Claxton S 35 14 8 9
Egor Demin S 25 10 0 4
Ziaire Williams 25 8 4 1
Danny Wolf 25 8 4 3
Ben Saraf 15 6 0 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 13 5 7 1
Drake Powell 13 5 1 2
Tyrese Martin S 22 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 36 28 11 11
Ayo Dosunmu S 36 16 2 1
Nikola Vucevic S 33 16 11 0
Matas Buzelis S 33 14 5 3
Patrick Williams 23 10 3 0
Jevon Carter 16 6 3 1
Dalen Terry 18 6 5 1
Julian Phillips S 28 5 1 1
Emanuel Miller 8 2 0 0
Trentyn Flowers 1 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Giddey CHI
14%
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
13%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
12%
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
11%
6 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
7 Egor Demin BKN
10%
8 Noah Clowney BKN
9%
9 Tyrese Martin BKN
9%
10 Ben Saraf BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
30%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 26.2 6.8 4.0
2 Josh Giddey CHI 21.9 9.9 8.9
3 Noah Clowney BKN 17.0 4.3 2.5
4 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 17.0 3.4 3.6
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.9 8.6 3.7
6 Tre Jones CHI 15.1 3.5 4.4
7 Nic Claxton BKN 14.7 8.6 4.6
8 Matas Buzelis CHI 13.6 6.3 2.1
9 Egor Demin BKN 12.6 4.1 4.2
10 Tyrese Martin BKN 10.1 3.2 2.8
11 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.7 3.3 1.4
12 Drake Powell BKN 7.3 2.4 2.4
13 Danny Wolf BKN 6.7 2.8 2.2
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.7 5.3 1.8
15 Ben Saraf BKN 6.3 1.9 3.6
16 Patrick Williams CHI 6.2 3.1 1.3
17 Jevon Carter CHI 5.4 1.6 1.1
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.4 1.2 0.7
19 Julian Phillips CHI 4.1 2.0 0.6
20 Emanuel Miller CHI 3.3 1.1 0.6
21 Tyson Etienne BKN 2.1 0.7 0.5
22 Dalen Terry CHI 2.0 1.1 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.