NBA games

CHA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
104–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA12352829104
NY27263729119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home NY
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 37 34 8 9
Tidjane Salaun 23 13 4 0
Kon Knueppel S 34 13 4 4
Sion James S 30 11 1 0
Liam McNeeley 21 10 3 1
Miles Bridges S 29 8 6 0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 25 8 9 0
Collin Sexton 9 4 1 2
Moussa Diabate S 20 2 8 2
KJ Simpson 4 1 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 39 35 18 5
Jalen Brunson S 37 26 2 5
Mikal Bridges S 36 16 4 2
Josh Hart S 37 15 8 8
Miles McBride S 34 15 2 1
Jordan Clarkson 21 6 3 2
Tyler Kolek 13 6 3 5
Mohamed Diawara 1 0 0 0
Ariel Hukporti 13 0 2 0
Guerschon Yabusele 9 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:57 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mason Plumlee CHA
15%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
6 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
8%
7 Josh Hart NY
8%
8 LaMelo Ball CHA
7%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
10 Sion James CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
64%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
21%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.9 3.3 7.2
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.5 10.4 4.2
3 Miles Bridges CHA 21.6 5.0 3.0
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 20.6 4.8 3.6
5 Mikal Bridges NY 20.4 4.7 3.7
6 LaMelo Ball CHA 18.4 5.4 8.0
7 Josh Hart NY 17.9 8.6 6.3
8 Collin Sexton CHA 17.4 3.1 3.7
9 Miles McBride NY 12.9 3.0 2.6
10 Jordan Clarkson NY 11.5 2.8 2.0
11 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.3 8.1 1.6
12 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 9.3 6.4 0.9
13 Sion James CHA 6.7 3.6 1.8
14 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.0 3.3 1.0
15 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.0 2.2 0.8
16 Antonio Reeves CHA 4.3 1.3 0.6
17 Tyler Kolek NY 4.1 1.4 1.9
18 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.9 1.9 0.9
19 KJ Simpson CHA 3.6 1.3 1.6
20 Trey Jemison III NY 2.6 2.2 0.5
21 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.2 2.0 0.7
22 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.1 1.1 0.4
23 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.1 1.1 0.7
24 Mason Plumlee CHA 1.3 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.