NBA games

LAC @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
115–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC27283921115
ATL2120321992

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home ATL
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 37 27 4 9
Kawhi Leonard S 35 21 6 5
Kobe Sanders 27 17 3 4
John Collins S 32 15 9 1
Ivica Zubac S 33 14 17 5
Kris Dunn S 21 8 0 2
Nicolas Batum 20 6 3 2
Cam Christie 17 4 5 0
Kobe Brown 13 3 5 1
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 3 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 31 21 5 3
Dyson Daniels S 35 15 3 2
Luke Kennard 21 11 5 2
Asa Newell 19 11 1 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 33 11 3 3
Keaton Wallace 19 8 2 4
Onyeka Okongwu S 34 7 9 5
Vit Krejci 21 5 3 1
Caleb Houstan 5 3 1 0
Mouhamed Gueye S 23 0 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
14%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
3 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
10%
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
5 James Harden LAC
9%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
8 Jalen Johnson ATL
8%
9 John Collins LAC
7%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
30%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 30.2 5.9 8.5
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 26.8 5.9 3.8
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 26.7 10.7 9.3
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.8 4.3 4.2
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 22.7 6.5 4.0
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 19.3 12.6 3.5
7 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 19.0 6.2 3.1
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.1 7.4 6.2
9 John Collins LAC 11.9 5.2 1.1
10 Kris Dunn LAC 10.6 3.3 3.5
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.3 3.4 1.9
12 Vit Krejci ATL 9.7 2.6 2.0
13 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.5 2.4 1.6
14 Luke Kennard ATL 6.5 1.8 2.5
15 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.1 3.7 0.9
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.9 2.9 0.9
17 Cam Christie LAC 5.3 2.4 1.0
18 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.1 1.4 2.5
19 Kobe Brown LAC 4.8 2.3 1.2
20 Brook Lopez LAC 4.2 1.3 0.6
21 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.3 2.1 0.6
22 Caleb Houstan ATL 3.3 0.9 0.4
23 Asa Newell ATL 2.8 1.1 0.4
24 Jahmyl Telfort LAC 1.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.