NBA games

SA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
114–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA31272828114
ORL29203033112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home ORL
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 29 31 5 5
Dylan Harper 22 16 5 5
Devin Vassell S 32 15 6 1
Julian Champagnie S 28 14 5 0
Keldon Johnson 25 13 4 1
Harrison Barnes S 33 11 5 2
Luke Kornet S 28 5 7 4
Jeremy Sochan 20 4 7 1
Carter Bryant 13 3 5 0
Lindy Waters III 6 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 36 25 4 6
Jalen Suggs S 27 24 4 4
Desmond Bane S 38 14 3 6
Tristan da Silva S 26 12 4 0
Goga Bitadze 19 8 5 2
Jase Richardson 16 8 5 2
Anthony Black 28 7 7 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 29 5 9 2
Tyus Jones 7 5 0 0
Jonathan Isaac 12 4 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SA
17%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
11%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
5 Harrison Barnes SA
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Luke Kornet SA
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
51%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SA 25.3 4.1 6.6
2 Franz Wagner ORL 24.9 6.5 4.2
3 Desmond Bane ORL 24.7 5.0 5.4
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 18.0 4.6 5.6
5 Anthony Black ORL 17.9 3.8 4.0
6 Devin Vassell SA 17.6 3.9 2.9
7 Harrison Barnes SA 14.4 3.9 2.3
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.4 7.4 3.0
9 Keldon Johnson SA 14.3 7.4 2.1
10 Dylan Harper SA 13.0 3.4 3.3
11 Julian Champagnie SA 11.4 5.2 1.5
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 11.0 4.4 1.9
13 Luke Kornet SA 7.5 5.6 1.7
14 Jett Howard ORL 7.3 1.9 1.0
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.7 5.3 1.4
16 Jeremy Sochan SA 6.1 3.4 1.3
17 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.8 2.4 1.4
18 Noah Penda ORL 4.7 3.5 1.1
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.5 4.2 0.7
20 Tyus Jones ORL 4.4 1.4 2.9
21 David Jones Garcia SA 3.3 1.7 1.2
22 Carter Bryant SA 3.2 1.8 0.5
23 Lindy Waters III SA 2.7 1.1 0.6
24 Jase Richardson ORL 2.5 0.8 0.8
25 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.9 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.